Congress clashes with Left in two states

Coimbatore: In what is rapidly emerging as the biggest test for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the centre, the two key states of West Bengal and Kerala go to the polls today.

The Left parties and the Congress must set aside their alliance at the centre and pit their wits against each other in 125 Assembly constituencies of West Bengal and Kerala with 757 candidates in the fray.

The five-phase elections which include polls in north-eastern Assam, the former French enclave of Pondicherry, and southern Tamil Nadu where the ruling Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will contest as many as 54 seats in 10 districts in Kerala, end on May 8.

It sets the stage for a dramatic shift in the power balance if the Marxists retain West Bengal and oust the Congress in Kerala.

In West Bengal, in the eastern rim of the world's largest democracy, 66 Assembly constituencies of four southern districts Howrah, Hooghly, East Midnapore and Nadia will hold elections.

The main battle will be between the Left Front, led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), and the largely ineffectual Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee.

The state which is a Marxist bastion has voted the Communists to power unfailingly six consecutive times since 1977. Apart from the Election Commission which has weeded out bogus voters and is determined to repeat its success with Bihar, the Marxists have no real opposition. Problems faced by workers dealing with industrial sickness, law and order, shoddy civic amenities, Bangladeshi infiltration and erosion of the Ganges river are election issues. But the Left is expected by most analysts to sail through.

It's in Kerala, where a Congress government is fighting to retain power in the face of a determined Left onslaught that the drama of this election lies.

At least three pre-poll surveys have predicted an LDF sweep, saying it could win close to 100 seats in the 140-member State assembly. Of the 59 seats, the Congress-led UDF won 45 in 2001.

Electoral performance in the southern districts, especially in Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram, is a pointer towards the overall result. The electoral fortunes of Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, nine of his colleagues in the UDF cabinet and some of the prominent Marxist leaders will be decided today.

The UDF is seeking a second term on the plank of development and growth achieved by the state in different sectors of economy, while the LDF is seeking to capitalise on the popularity of its crusty leader V.S. Achuthanandan.

But in what should be a warning to both parties, election rallies have been poorly attended by a largely apathetic public with Chandy reportedly speaking to exactly eight people at one public meeting.

Analysts say that while the Left will mobilise its disciplined cadres today, the UDF will find it far more difficult to enthuse its faithful making poor voter turnout a possibility.

Analysts say a poor showing by the Congress could make the coalition's Communist allies, which provide it with a parliamentary majority but have refused to join the government, more aggressive as they seek to curb economic reforms being pursued by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's administration. CPM general secretary Prakash Karat said the party will review its ties with the Congress-led UPA after the elections.

key numbers

West Bengal

 - Among the four districts, Hooghly has 19 seats followed by 16 each in Howrah and East Midnapore and 15 in Nadia.

 - Total number of voters is 11.3 million.

 - 122,99 polling stations have been set up in the four districts.

 - Total electorate is 48.9 million.

 - In all, 348 candidates, including 28 women are in the electoral fray for the second phase of polls in the eastern state.

 - The first phase of polls on April 17 saw a 70 per cent voter turnout in 45 constituencies.

Kerala

 - Today's first phase of polling will involve 59 constituencies in the six districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam and Idukki.

 - An estimated 8.4 million voters, including 4.3 million women, will exercise their franchise to elect 409 candidates.

 - Total electorate is 21.48 million.

 - Election Commission officials said the voting would take place in 8,292 polling booths, using 9,121 electronic voting machines.

 - For the first time, digital cameras will be allowed in the polling booths in all three phases.