Why Musharraf let the bird out of cage

For Pakistan, it was a bombshell which burst without much warning. Within 24 hours of the news breaking, Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister sentenced to life imprisonment, was a free man and jetting off to Saudi Arabia.

His freedom from captivity came as a result of a deal whose ramifications will continue to unfold for quite some time. The official statement has spelt out some of the conditions of the deal which include Sharif staying out of politics for 21 years, forfeiting $8.3 million in property in return for waiving of his life sentence.

But there are whisperings of deals behind the deal, of pressure bearing down on the government, and of clandestine contacts between the military authorities and the Sharif family. The direct involvement of Saudi Arabia is now public knowledge, and reports in Pakistani newspapers say the terms of the deal were discussed and given touches of finality in Doha during the OIC summit meeting. It has also been reported that the Sharif family will spend a few months in Saudi Arabia and then eventually move to London.

This sudden political shockwave has created turbulence in Pakistan. It has shaken the political landscape which will rearrange itself as the dust settles down and new political realities emerge from the debris. But the debris will remain proof that unpleasant things occurred at a time when the country is desperately in search of economic and political stability.

It is for the first time that the two main political leaders of Pakistan – Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif – are now in exile. Read this reality with General Pervez Musharraf's earlier statement that both Sharif and Bhutto had no future in Pakistani politics, and a pattern emerges.

Is the situation now favourable for the rise of a new political leadership, which the military government has talked about so often? For some martial enthusiasts this may be so, but producing new leadership cannot be a quick fix affair. Till the time that a new cadre emerges, if indeed it does, the 'old' leaders will remain very relevant.

And this is despite their performance, not because of it. Benazir's conviction in Pakistani courts is old news now, and it damage her both domestically and internationally, while Nawaz Sharif's troubles remain fresh in public memory. One reason for this, other than the proximity of time, is Sharif's penchant for surprise.

In 1993 he surprised the Establishment, whose product he was, by fighting back in wake of his dismissal from government. Overnight he became an anti-Establishment figure who began to draw more crowds at his public gatherings than he ever did as prime minister. He then surprised the people by remaining in opposition for three years and fighting pressures from the Bhutto government. No one had expected him to last this long in such inhospitable conditions.

With the dismissal of the Bhutto government in 1996, the stage was set for general elections. The results surprised everyone, most of all Nawaz Sharif himself. A landslide victory gave him an unprecedented mandate, and routed his opponent.

Nawaz however kept up his surprise offensive as prime minister. He surprised friends and foes alike by picking up fights with the president, chief justice and the army chief, and vanquishing them all. He then surprised the world, and probably his military, by rolling out the red carpet for Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee in February 1999. But Indians were in for a surprise in Kargil a few months later.

Nawaz went along with the operation but then pulled a huge surprise when he dashed off to Washington in early July for an emergency meeting with President Bill Clinton (which was incidentally arranged by the Saudi ambassador in Washington). The meeting led to a cessation of hostilities in Kargil and a pullback of Pakistani forces. It was quite a climb down.

Three months later, Nawaz again pulled out a surprise, his biggest till then, by announcing the sacking of his army chief and the appointment of his handpicked man. This time the surprise did not turn out the way he had planned. He was thus surprised to see troops in his house in the evening. He was even more surprised when he was told the game was over.

But he was not finished as yet. Once in custody, he was asked by the military authorities to tender his resignation. He surprised them by his refusal. Charged with terrorism and corruption, Nawaz put up a bold face and went through the prolonged trial with a defiant attitude. This was a surprise. He was sentenced for life but he did not budge from his stance.

Another surprise. It appeared he was ready to serve out his sentence and direct his party and politics from jail. His wife was wielding authority on his behalf, and drawing crowds. The challenge to his leadership never materialised into an all-out rebellion, and after the expulsion of the dissidents, it was clear that his faction remained the dominant one. He was in control.

But then came the mother of all surprises. The defiant leader who was challenging the military from behind bars, was within a day air bound to an outside destination along with his family, after having agreed to stay out of politics for 21 years and not issue any statement against the military government. So strong was the surprise that most people refused to believe it till the government officially made the announcement at night.

What is not surprising is the fallout of his latest surprise. Sharif is not exactly smelling like roses. For that matter, neither is the government. He is now being accused by most people of running away instead of facing up to problems.

His supporters are stunned that he could ditch them like this and hare off. His party men are wondering why he went through the internal fight over party leadership which led to a split, when he was planning to call it quits anyway. His foes are mouthing 'we-told-you-so' about this 'businessman' who could not brave the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics. Perceptions are everything in politics, and more so in countries like Pakistan where real issues are overshadowed by clash of personalities.

The perception about Sharif is that he could not take the heat. This is a terrible reputation to carry around for a politician. But this is exactly what he will have to do for quite some time – and pay the cost.

And what of the government? Having promised accountability and strict punishment to the guilty, the military government has let off its biggest catch. Political expediency has once again prevailed over principles.

People are justified in asking how a convicted man could be freed because of some 'deal'? What about other convicts? Why should they not be offered deals and released? It is an embarrassing moment for the government, and for good reason too. The climb down from the high horse should begin now.

Not the least because the moment wheeling and dealing starts, the holier-than-thou attitude becomes impossible to retain. There will be justifications galore for this deal, about how it is good for the country, and how Pakistan is now cleansed of one more corrupt person, but in the court of the people, legal nitpickings do not wash.

The image that will endure is that of a former prime minister fleeing the country after the government, for its own convenie