UAE could see above-average rainfall as powerful El Niño phenomenon develops

Dubai: The UAE could experience above-average rainfall as the El Niño climate phenomenon intensifies, with the possibility of heavy to exceptionally heavy downpours if the expected rainfall is concentrated over a few days rather than spread across several months.

Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomy Society and a member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, said the phenomenon could significantly influence rainfall patterns across the UAE and the wider Arabian Peninsula.

He explained that the UAE typically receives between 100mm and 120mm of rainfall annually, but El Niño could push precipitation above these levels.The intensity of the rainfall, however, would depend largely on how it is distributed over time.

If the additional rainfall falls within a short period, some areas could experience heavy or exceptionally heavy downpours. If spread over a longer period, the increase might be less noticeable.

Al Jarwan pointed out that rainfall totals in some areas had exceeded 200mm in a single month in previous years, illustrating how precipitation can become concentrated over relatively short periods.

El Niño could reach unprecedented intensity

Al Jarwan said El Niño affects vast regions worldwide, including the UAE and the Arabian Peninsula, making it a phenomenon of considerable international concern.

Citing projections attributed to the World Meteorological Organisation, he said the average El Niño temperature anomaly between October and December could reach +3.7°C, peaking in December. He said this would exceed the previous record of +2.6°C recorded during the 2015–2016 El Niño event.

According to Al Jarwan, there is a 38 per cent probability that the developing phenomenon could become a historic event, surpassing the intensity of any previously recorded El Niño.

Thunderstorms and strong winds across Gulf region

Meanwhile, Al Jarwan said the GCC countries were experiencing unsettled weather conditions as a low-pressure system accompanied by a relatively cold air mass brought rain-bearing thunderclouds across the region.

Several areas have experienced moderate to heavy thunderstorms, accompanied by flash flooding, hail and strong winds stirring up dust and sand.

Conditions in the Arabian Gulf have also deteriorated, with winds ranging from 20 to 45km/h and exceeding 50km/h near thunderstorms.

Wave heights have risen above two metres in some areas, leaving sea conditions moderate to rough.

The combination of heavy rainfall, strong winds and rough seas highlights the potential hazards associated with the current weather instability, particularly in areas vulnerable to flash flooding and reduced visibility.