UAE weather: 96% probability of El Niño persisting until March 2027, bringing hotter, wetter conditions
NCM warns temperatures and rainfall could exceed seasonal averages across the UAE
Dubai: The UAE could experience above-average temperatures and rainfall in the coming months as the El Niño weather phenomenon strengthens, with a 96 per cent probability of El Niño conditions prevailing from November 2026 through March 2027, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
In its latest seasonal climate outlook, the NCM said the developing El Niño pattern could influence weather conditions across the country, potentially bringing higher temperatures and greater rainfall than usual.
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The forecast covers the period from November 2026 to March 2027, with the phenomenon expected to begin affecting weather patterns in January.
The NCM said current climate indicators showed significant El Niño activity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures have risen considerably.
Temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific have reached 2.3°C above the long-term average, indicating strong warming in the region.
According to the report, the warming intensified during October and November 2026, with anomalies approaching 3°C in some projections, suggesting the possibility of a strong El Niño event.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can disrupt atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, temperatures and weather patterns across different parts of the world.
The NCM said the phenomenon could lead to above-average temperatures and rainfall in the UAE, particularly towards the latter part of the forecast period, provided suitable atmospheric conditions develop.
However, the outlook does not mean that heavy rainfall or flooding is certain. The intensity and geographical distribution of rainfall will depend on regional weather systems and atmospheric conditions.
The latest projections follow a period of La Niña conditions, characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific.
The NCM's assessment indicates a transition towards El Niño, with the phenomenon expected to dominate the coming months.
The seasonal outlook highlights the potential for changing weather patterns across the UAE as the country moves through the winter months and into early spring.
