UAE weather: November to bring heavier rain? Here's what is expected

Dubai: The UAE could experience successive waves of heavy rain during the first half of November, with colder weather systems potentially bringing more widespread and intense rainfall during the month's second week, according to a UAE astronomy expert.

Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Emirates Astronomical Society and member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences, said unsettled weather was expected to continue in waves until mid-November, with the possibility of cold, winter-like low-pressure systems moving across the region.

According to Al Khaleej, Al Jarwan said the second week of November could bring stronger and more widespread weather systems, although he cautioned that the reliability of forecasts decreases significantly over longer periods.

He explained that meteorological forecasts are generally divided into four categories, each offering different levels of accuracy and detail.

Short-range forecasts, covering the next 48 hours, are the most reliable, with accuracy exceeding 90 per cent. These forecasts can provide relatively precise information about the arrival of low-pressure systems, expected rainfall amounts and areas most likely to experience heavy showers.

Medium-range forecasts, covering three to eight days, have an estimated accuracy of 60 to 80 per cent, with confidence declining as the forecast period extends.

Al Jarwan noted that forecasting models, including those operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecast System (GFS), may agree on the development of a weather system while differing over its timing, path and intensity.

Forecasts extending nine to 15 days are considerably less reliable, with accuracy falling below 50 per cent, he said. Such predictions should therefore be treated as indications of possible weather trends rather than precise daily forecasts.

Seasonal outlooks, covering periods of more than one month and up to three months, provide broader indications of whether temperatures and rainfall are likely to be above or below average. They rely on large-scale climate patterns, including El Niño, ocean temperatures and polar circulation, rather than predicting individual storms.

El Niño could bring wetter conditions to UAE

Meanwhile, the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has reported a 96 per cent probability of El Niño conditions persisting between November 2026 and March 2027, with their effects potentially extending into April.

The centre's seasonal outlook indicates that temperatures and rainfall across the UAE could be near or above their usual averages during this period.

However, the NCM stressed that the 96 per cent probability refers to the persistence of El Niño, not the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the UAE.

It explained that the strength of the phenomenon alone cannot determine how much rain will fall or how intense individual weather events may become.

The centre also cited a World Meteorological Organisation forecast suggesting that sea surface temperatures in the El Niño monitoring region of the Pacific Ocean could rise to approximately 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially indicating exceptionally strong El Niño conditions.

What is El Niño and how does it affect the UAE?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that generally develops every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels.

The warming changes interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, affecting wind circulation, atmospheric pressure and the distribution of rainfall across different parts of the world.

Its effects can extend far beyond the Pacific, influencing weather systems in distant regions.

The NCM explained that El Niño can indirectly affect wind patterns and the movement of low-pressure systems across the Arabian Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula, potentially influencing rainfall in the UAE.

However, the development of heavy rain depends on several factors, including atmospheric moisture, wind patterns and the position and strength of individual weather systems.

The centre emphasised that even a particularly strong El Niño does not automatically mean the UAE will experience heavy rainfall, making shorter-range forecasts essential for assessing the timing, location and intensity of any approaching weather systems.