El Niño to persist through February 2027, impacts on UAE to extend into April
NCM warns of near to above-average heat, rainfall and significant weather
Dubai: El Niño is expected to persist through February 2027, with its impacts on the UAE extending into April, bringing near to above-average temperatures and precipitation and the potential for significant weather activity, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
In its latest seasonal forecast, the NCM said current observations showed El Niño conditions firmly established in the Pacific Ocean, with a 99 per cent probability of the phenomenon continuing from October 2026 through February 2027.
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The NCM said climate model guidance consistently pointed to a peak between October and November 2026, when the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly could reach around 3°C, a level indicating a very strong El Niño event.
The latest reading of the Niño 3.4 index stood at 1.8°C, already placing the phenomenon in the strong El Niño category, according to the NCM assessment.
For the UAE, temperatures and precipitation are expected to range from near to above seasonal averages between October and February, accompanied by “significant weather activities”, particularly during the latter part of the forecast period.
The NCM said El Niño itself was forecast to persist through February, but its associated effects on the UAE could continue until April 2027.
The latest outlook strengthens earlier NCM projections that the developing El Niño would influence UAE weather through the 2026-27 winter. Previous assessments indicated the phenomenon could bring a warmer-than-usual winter, an earlier start to the rainy season and periods of heavier rainfall, although this does not mean continuous rain.
The World Meteorological Organization said last week there was a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño would persist through February 2027 and intensify to very strong levels before peaking towards the end of 2026.
El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that can alter atmospheric circulation and shift temperature and rainfall patterns around the world.
