Thud of artillery disturbs pastoral calm again

The border between Israel and Lebanon is a beautiful place. From Naqoura on the Mediterranean to the small bifurcated town of Ghajar, the rolling green hills on both sides of the border speak of a pastoral tranquility.

Unfortunately, over the past quarter century, the thud of artillery and missiles has been the mark of the territory, and it may be so again soon.

I know this land well from my time with the United Nations working in southern Lebanon and I have often driven by or flown over the fenced border by chopper. Like many places in the world that have been scourged by conflict, this area has remained undeveloped and idyllic.

One of the great ironies of modern life is the choice between the bullets that keep the developers away, or the ugly concrete that replaces the bullets... and the rolling hills.

After the recent Israeli air strike on Syria, southern Lebanon and its dozens of small Christian and Shiite villages threaten again to be the arena for the fight between Israel and Hez-bollah and Syria.

Nasty noises have been coming out of both sides since the air attack. Israeli overflights of Lebanon are on the increase for both reconnaissance and threat; Israeli Foreign Minister Shalom points to the possibility of a 'large' Hezbollah operation; Syrian Foreign Minister Farouq Al Sharaa has indicated that, should Israel strike again, the will of the Syrian people would demand a counterattack against Israeli colonies in the Golan.

There is also little doubt that Hezbollah would be poised and ready to run with the Syrian game out of the shallow valleys of the southern Lebanese hills.

It is likely that no side wants this fight, no one has much to gain, at least from a rational standpoint. Still, the ingredients are all there for miscalculation and an unfolding of an unwanted war.

Both sides are poised in the macho posture of aggression and errors are possible: in the latest attack in the border area on 27 October, Hezbollah for the first time targeted with anti-tank missiles an Israeli position outside of the Shebaa farms.

A bad suicide attack in Israel, or even a deadly Hezbollah attack on Israeli forces on the border, could lead to another air attack on Syria, followed by a rain of Katyushas by Hezbollah on northern Israel, and some form of attack on Israeli colonies in the Golan.

The death of dozens or hundreds of Israelis in the Golan or the North, well within Hezbollah's capabilities, would certainly lead to a massive Israeli strike against Lebanese targets and even "incursions" into southern Lebanon to once again push back the missile launchers from range. Incursions that would lay over the cover of war and its pyrotechnic blight onto the simple green hills of the South.

Towns with names like Bint Jbeil, Yarin and Rmeish would once again hear the roars of Merkavas.

At the moment, all that may be holding back such a scenario is the ongoing negotiations for a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah - this prize is important enough for both sides, and developed enough, to mitigate impulsive actions. Still, this is the Middle East: Sharon has daring and Hezbollah has promised to match his "madness" with a madness of their own.

There is no rhyme or reason for a small but bloody war on the border of Israel and Lebanon. As there is no sense in this very small and pretty corner of the world to be criss-crossed again by the tracers and launchers of anger and defiance. But, there is little sense in the Middle East conflict to begin with.

The only hope for change is that those who play with fire will see the possibility of conflagration and hold back long enough so that others, who see the absurdity of these confrontations, will be determined enough to put a rein on the march of folly, and permit the border area of Israel and Lebanon to return to its natural state: a pastoral calm.

The writer is a former UN and Canadian diplomat, a commentator on Middle East and international affairs.