How to do it: It is time for predictions and resolutions

There is no doubt that 2002 has not been the best year for the Gulf-based investor but there are signs that the New Year bodes slightly better.

The FTSE is standing at 3,829 points, over 27 per cent down from 5,242 points this time last year which in turn was 1,300 points down on December 31, 2000. The Dow Jones has performed slightly better standing at 8,304 points, 18 per cent down from its close of 10,142 points 12 months ago. Now is the time for both predictions and resolutions as we await the dawn of 2003.

We would all benefit if many of our so-called financial advisers made the following two resolutions: to stop cold calling and adhere to higher standards of ethical behaviour and technical advice. No doubt that the government will help speed up this process by introducing more regulation into an industry that has been bedevilled by too many fly-by-night operators.

Resolve to stay clear of any pump-and-dump schemes which seem to becoming more prevalent of late. These usually originate from an overseas location whereby the tout will give out highly confidential information on a certain share. Just ask yourself why a perfect stranger would give you such information and why, if the advice is so good and sure to make money, he does not buy all the shares for himself?

Since such advice can only benefit the originator himself, save time by putting the phone down straightaway. It is amazing how many people will fall for this type of scam which has netted un-scrupulous conmen millions of dollars.

One important resolution would be to ensure that you know how much your financial adviser is receiving from you in commissions, etc prior to agreeing to any proposal. Some of the fee structures around town tend to be on the north side of high.

In 2003, make sure you check all documents from banks, especially statements. How many of us have stories of hidden charges and wrong entries?

My bank has a habit of charging interest and minimum balance charges on my cheque account despite instructions to top up from the savings account whenever circumstances so direct. Banks seem to be very quick in charging but very slow in crediting back money as a result of their errors.

We could all do ourselves a big favour, as well as ensuring an improvement in the banking sector, if 2003 saw a customer reaction to poor services and wrongful or exorbitant fees.

The public sector has well and truly embraced the e-revolution and the sooner the private sector follows suit the better for the business community. This must be high on the resolution list for 2003.

One of the tenets of human rights is that a man receives a fair day's pay for a fair day's work. It would do well if all sectors adhered to this philosophy, which also incorporates the fact that employees should be paid on time. Hopefully, 2003 will see any practice of non-payment become a distant memory.

The business world would be ecstatic if there were moves to improve both the payment of debts and the establishment of a small claims tribunal. How much corporate time is lost in chasing up payments will never be known but suffice the hours wasted could be put to more productive commercial use. Likewise a small claims tribunal would free up the courts' time and bring speedier resolutions to relatively minor claims.

Maybe 2003 will be the year that sees the beginning of the end for the post-dated cheque. It is amazing that this anachronistic practice still remains in this era of technological revolution and the sooner PDCs are relegated to the history books the better for all concerned.

Any space cadet can see that the residential developments, new hotels and retail outlets are of international class but now must be the time for developers to look at, in the words of Monty Python, 'something completely different'. Themed hotels will be a major draw card in years to come with the country reaping the rewards if it were to be a centre for major sports fixtures, recreational activities and cultural events. Its geographical location and ultra modern infrastructure are already in place to enhance such future developments.

Surely now is the time for the private sector to come to the party and start looking seriously at establishing world class facilities. For a kick off: a sports stadium that could also serve as a venue for major concerts, and what about a ski slope, a white water area and a race track?
To end with predictions for 2003:

• The global equity markets will recover albeit marginally.

• The international property sector will soften but will still return above average rates in certain segments.

• There will be more high profile financial scandals involving accounting firms and investment bankers.

• The dollar, and therefore the dirham, will strengthen against sterling and other major currencies. Good news if you have enough dirhams left to remit back home.

• Rents may well drop as the increased supply of residential units begins to kick in.

• School fees will continue at their artificially high levels.

• Oil prices will show great volatility while gold, despite its recent fourth quarter surge, will remain flat.

• Interest rates will nudge up ever so slightly towards the end of the year.

• The Rolling Stones will appear in Dubai and give the organisers a healthy and deserved return on investment.

• Dubai owners will pick up at least three of the UK classic horse races while a Godolphin horse will win the Dubai World Cup.

• Both Emirates-sponsored teams, Chelsea and Collingwood, will win silverware this year.

• England will turn up for the cricket World Cup that will be won by the home country against New Zealand.

• Cyclists here will continue to pedal the wrong way around the local streets, a lesson for us all, going with the flow does not always provide investors the optimum return
Have a prosperous New Year.