Nearly half a million people could die from El Niño heat by February

Dubai: More than 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide by February as an unusually powerful El Niño drives temperatures higher across much of the planet, according to new projections from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

The estimate covers the first nine months of the current El Niño, from June 2026 through February 2027, and measures deaths associated with additional heat compared with the same months in an average year.

About 239,000 of those deaths are projected to occur between September and February alone.

Researchers estimate that global land temperatures will run about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, while the number of extremely hot days could be 44 per cent higher than in a typical year.

They described the event as a glimpse of temperatures that could become commonplace within about two decades as the planet continues to warm.

The heaviest toll is expected to fall on lower-income countries already accustomed to high temperatures but with fewer resources to protect people from extreme heat.

Nigeria is projected to record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September and February, the highest figure for any country, followed by Indonesia with 19,300. Sudan is projected to see about 17,500 additional deaths, India 15,800 and Brazil 13,300.

Across Africa's Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, researchers estimate that the additional heat could cause about 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.

The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could record a combined 19,400 additional deaths.

The projections do not include deaths that could result indirectly from other effects associated with El Niño, including drought, flooding, wildfires and pressure on food supplies.

Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the projections were intended to identify where interventions could save the greatest number of lives before the most severe heat arrives.

Measures cited by the researchers include heat-warning systems, cooling and hydration centres, outreach to vulnerable people, protections for outdoor workers and additional capacity in health services during periods of extreme heat.

The researchers based their estimates on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, accounting for differences in local climate, vulnerability and the ability of communities to adapt. They then applied those relationships to seasonal temperature forecasts and compared the results with the 1996-2025 average.

The full methodology for the latest projections is expected to be submitted for peer review. The Climate Impact Lab said unusually high temperatures could persist beyond February, meaning the eventual toll could rise further, particularly in parts of the Northern Hemisphere entering their warmer months later in 2027.

Scientists have stressed that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects are unfolding against a planet already made substantially warmer by human-caused climate change. That combination increases the likelihood that communities will experience temperatures beyond those to which they have historically adapted.