Decisive moment for peace in Middle East

This is a decisive week for the Palestinians, indeed for the entire Middle East, as representatives of the "quartet" hold two vital meeting this Wednesday in New York, and on Friday in Washington.

This is also the view of the UN special co-coordinator for the Middle East peace process, Terje Roed-Larsen. He told me, while he was passing through London last week, the "quartet" talks this time is "a kind of make or break for Palestine and peace in ME."

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Anan, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and External Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten, and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, are invited to meet this Friday in Washington by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell.

The "quartet", comprising the United Nations, the European Union, United States and Russia, have introduced in the course of the year, a "road map for peace" to be implemented in Palestine in three stages.

In stage one, Israel should, with improving security in the Palestinian occupied territories, withdraw its forces to September 2000 borders and support free Palestinian elections in early 2003.

But many Palestinian spokespersons, Western diplomats and international volunteers, have indicated on numerous occasions that comprehensive security reforms are being undermined by Israeli military forces, who seem these days to enjoy the upper-hand in running Israel's policy.

Therefore, holding an election under these circumstances would seem as a joke, given that about 80 per cent of the Palestinian population are not allowed to travel within their own towns and villages to cast their votes.

The second phase envisages a period to last till the end of 2004 with a "focus on creating a Palestinian state with 'provision' borders as a way station to a permanent status."

The third phase takes place by 2005 and talks about "negotiations aimed at a permanent status solution in 2005."

Though the 'road map for peace' avoids talking about the real problematic issues, such as the refugee right of return and status of Jerusalem, it does uphold the main principle for a settlement: Land for peace.

This is essential for any meaningful peace settlement to succeed. But unfortunately, no sign is yet on the part of the Israeli government showing any willingness to move along the "quartet" thinking.

Roed-Larsen is a very quiet man who doesn't speak nonsense. He has been involved in the Palestinian affairs long before the 1993 Oslo Accords, of which Larsen was the main architect.

As director of the Fafo Institute for Applied Social Science in Oslo in the 1980s, Roed-Larsen initiated a research project into the living conditions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The relationships with both Palestinians and Israelis that he established during the period of preparing and implementing the project, has led to his involvement in establishing the secret channel for negotiations between the PLO and Yitzhak Rabin's government in 1992.

With the deafening sound of war drums against Iraq, the Norwegian diplomat is extremely worried that the situation might dangerously flare up in the entire Middle East if the "quartet" fails to deliver this time.

Roed-Larsen cites the level of poverty in the occupied territories, particularly Gaza which has been reduced to dire straits economically since Israel sealed the crossings to Palestinian workers when the intifada broke out in September 2000.

He said the poverty rate is above 70 per cent and unemployment is higher than 50 per cent. "More than 20 per cent of Palestinian households have lost all their income," Larsen added.

Last Friday, five young Palestinians from Gaza died in search of work. Unemployed and desperate, the only crime committed by these young men was to take an illegal route into Israel to find illicit jobs. They paid with their lives.

Now with the situation as dire as it is, it seems the only road to occupied Jerusalem is the "road map". This Friday, the "quartet" representatives are due to meet the U.S. President George Walker Bush and have his seal on the final blueprint.

Roed-Larsen is not necessarily optimistic. On the contrary, he reckons the situation could remain gloomy for a while. But he is hopeful that the "quartet" will make a lot of difference soon.

"There is a lot at stake," he says. The credibility of the powers represented in the "quartet" is at stake. The only super power without which no peace can be achieved in the Middle East. The European Union which is the largest donor to the Palestinians, Russia with its clout and the UN.

"If these powers can not achieve peaceful settlement for the Palestinian issue no one else can," Larsen says.

He believes if the "quartet" approves the final blue-print of the "road map", it will be very hard for any party in the Middle East conflict to reject, or even try to hamper. "Quartet means the world and when you have the entire world standing behind these efforts and supporting the road map, the only movement is forward," he says.

But the main question remains: Is the Israeli government ready to move along the "road map"? With the general election due in Israel on January 28, it is difficult to predict what policy the new government will adopt.

With all polls showing up till now Ariel Sharon is ahead of his rival Labour leader Amaram Metzna, the former general is expected to form Israel's new government.

But, can a Sharon-led-government in 2003 which is likely to be a coalition of right-wing Likud members many of whom would be Benjamin Netanyahu supporters, and fundamentalist smaller parties, be different from a Sharon-led-national unity government in 2002?

It is hard to tell. But observers believe that recent statement made by Sharon, after he defeated his rival Netanyahu in the Likud leadership race, may at least appear that he was responding in anticipation of the expected "quartet" final blue-print.

Sharon has said that he was willing to accept an "independent Palestinian state", but with a lot of conditions. That it should be demilitarised and occupy only 41 per cent of the West Bank and Gaza.

The writer is the former president, Foreign Press Association in London.