Comment: Israeli premier makes his move; is it 'checkmate' for Palestinians?

Ariel Sharon has announced his ultimate move in the Israeli-Palestinian chess game and, lo and behold, it's not a Likud move, but a solid manoeuvre from the Israeli left: "deal with us or we will withdraw unilaterally".

Ironically, it was former Head of Labor Amram Mitzna who had last tried to sell the Israeli public the need for unilateral with-drawal should final status negotiations with the Palestinians fail.

Sharon calls his strategy a "unilateral security move of disengagement". He has committed to dismantling some colonies, rapidly co-mplete the security fence, and redeploy his army to more sensible positions if Palestinians do not implement the Roadmap.

He will certainly infuriate many in his cabinet: the far right wants to dismantle nothing, and Foreign Minister Shalom is already on record that unilateral steps are against Israel's interest. But Sharon's manoeuvre could be successful because it will most likely gain the approval of the majority of Israelis.

Sharon is demonstrating strong political survival techniques and putting aside a long held premise that colonies and the absorption of "Judea and Samaria" are good for Israel. Palestinian demographics have put an end to this dream; absorption would mean an end to a Jewish majority in Israel.

The "severance policy" can also be seen as a means to pressure Palestinians to negotiate, but to what end? Ahmad Qorei can move forward but where can he go with Sharon? The Geneva Accord is a few light years away from anything Israel will accept and may not be enough for many Palestinians.

No, Sharon has made his gamble in a clever and well-timed manner. He knows that 2004 is an election year in the US and that George W. Bush is not likely to put pressure against his country during that time. That is why Sharon has stated that he will begin to implement his policy in a few months. He knows this is the window for action with little US reaction.

Security separation

Sharon has emphasised that his plan is security only and not political; but once the wall is built and the trauma of uprooting some colonies will have occurred, the de facto security separation will not be reversed easily. It will only be a matter of time until the 'de jure' reality sets in: Israel will have new borders.

This is just about one of the worst scenarios that can occur in the region. New Israeli borders without Palestinian agreement will only fuel the fires of discontent. What can be done to address this manoeuvre? The natural inclination is to look towards the US for pressure against Israel. But reliance on the US in an election year may be foolhardy.

Instead, Arabs should out-manoeuvre Sharon. They can best do this by reviving the most comprehensive initiative that they have presented. That deal is the Saudi initiative of 2002 that offers Israel comprehensive regional peace for withdrawal from all Arab lands.

Permanent peace with the Arab world is more attractive to Israelis than a "unilateral security manoeuvre", and it will support those in Israel who can push Sharon lower in the polls. A representation of this package with much fanfare will force Israel to respond, and may even catch US attention.

The Saudi initiative faded last time because Sharon used the violent atmosphere of spring 2002 in his favour. Matters have cal-med somewhat since and a determined effort by Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt and the Palestinians may not go unheeded at all.

The writer is a former UN and Canadian diplomat, a commentator on Middle East and international affairs.