Comment: Doubts cast on 'The Protocols of the Elders of Zion'

The so-called "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" is a short booklet that outlines in strategic detail the plan for Jewish control over global economics and politics with the goal of pursuing the ideology of Zionism and the establishment of a state for the Jewish people.

The booklet is often considered to be the work of Russian Intelligence in the late 19th century, a period marked by pogroms agai-nst Jews in Russia. This intelligence fabrication was supposed to fuel anti-Jewish sentiment and provide a case for persecution.

One can buy what the booklet says, as many do in the Arab world, or one can throw it out as conspiratorial rubbish, as many in the West do. The fact that it will be aired on a popular and influential Arab television network at this juncture in history, however, is consequential and telling.

There are many possible ways to explain political obstacles and challenges. These range from apocalyptic prophecy, to dry socio-economic models, to conspiracies.

People buy into a model according to education and culture, among other factors, but the choice of model reflects perceptions of how politics work.

The Arabs suffered a setback in 1948 when the Jewish state was created and they have been trying to understand that ever since. One form of understanding is "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion": a few manipulative and high powered people control the destiny of millions, if not billions, through money and Machiavellian design.

Belief in such a model reflects the understanding many Arabs have of politics: Arab politics. The Arab domestic experience is of a few people at the centre managing and controlling millions. It is not a far cry from there to presume that a few eager Zionists can control the path of the Western world and the hundreds of millions who live there. This is particularly the case when Israel meets with success on the ground and in American policy while Muslim and Arab states and groups do not. Even Malaysian Prime Minister Mahtahir has offered up the 'Protocols Lite' in his statement at the Organisation of the Islamic Conference that the Jews control the world. As appealing as such conspiracies may be, they may in fact be wrong. Politics outside the Arab world may be different than politics within. Other factors can be playing into Israeli success, including the organisation of the Jewish Agency in the 1940s, the determination of a people who have suffered a genocide and the many close linkages between Jews and the West, in science, politics, academia and the media. The complex and integrated Jewish presence in the West over centuries, good organisation and simple determination do not equal conspiracy.

Even these elements are only part of the complexity of American, British, or Russian politics towards the Middle East. Furthermore, my own experience of working in government suggests that confusion and competition are vastly more relevant than conspiracy. These varied factors are less appealing than 'Protocols' but they may in fact point more clearly to the secret of Israeli and Zionist success more than a booklet from the 19th century.

What is more at stake by airing this drama in Ramadan is what it will mean for the future of the Middle East. It will mean that millions of people will watch it, like it and buy it, leaving the attitude of Arabs towards Israelis worse than the day before. The Arab failure of the past may be temporarily explained away but the Arab future will not have been. In the undeniable logic of the Middle East, a tougher stance towards the Israelis will certainly mean a counter-reaction on their part, and so on ad infinitum, or ad apocalyptus.

Feeling better today because the enemy is the devil will not produce stability in the region but more war, not prosperity but fewer dollars in the pocket. It will not even ensure Arab military success, despite the emotion, because what it proposes may simply be bad reconnaissance and poor understanding of an enemy.

The writer is a former UN and Canadian diplomat, a commentator on Middle East and international affairs.