Comment: Chaos Theory may help 'regional prognostications'

One of the most difficult yet stimulating exercises to attempt in the Middle East is "regional prognostications". There are simply too many changing variables to know for certain what will happen in the Middle East and how these variables will interact under changing circumstances: Chaos Theory may in fact be more useful here than political science.

To simplify it greatly, in Chaos Theory, the flapping of a butterfly's wings over Japan causes small changes in air currents that translate into unpredictable climatic dynamics and into hurricanes over North Carolina. Identifying that butterfly in the Middle East is not yet possible. Looking at the major variables, the gross scheme, may however enlighten somewhat.

The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 is potentially the most significant event in the Middle East since 1948. That year brought forth a Jewish state in an Arab and Muslim milieu with the sad and bloody consequences we have since witnessed. The introduction of the troops of a "hyperpower" into a major Arab country may have even larger consequences, especially given the context that brought the US into Iraq.

It is difficult to imagine the determined and expensive American entry into Iraq without September 11. The shadow of that date lives on in the nature of the American occupation, its longevity and its regional implications.

Excuse for occupation

Whether you see September 11 as an excuse for occupation or an irrational motivation, Americans are now dying in Iraq because their leaders believe in and are conducting a global war on terrorism.

America's answer in this war on terror is clearly to engage the radicals wherever they are, but also to create reform to pre-empt their future rise. This puts the US in obvious confrontation with radicals like Osama bin Laden but also potentially with forces of tradition and rule in the Arab world that could be threatened by political change - as Saddam was.

Democratic change

Imagine that, over time, America pushes harder in Iraq for "democratic change" and yet still finds itself fighting the radicals and the disenchanted in Baghdad, Fallujah, Balad and Tikrit. Some in the Arab world may play a complex game with the US, as Iran does now, because of their own tensions in the region.

Adopting American policies holus bolus may mean the end of the very governments adopting them.

Playing against America has, however, become a dangerous game, especially with its nearby military presence in Iraq. It will be a delicate and difficult task.

The American reforms in Iraq and the Arab world will be viewed as imperialistic. Slowly but surely, a sense of anti-Americanism could unite now disparate centres - as it may already be doing in Iraq.

Over time, despite America's reforms (and maybe because of them) the activities of radicals, the vested interests of rulers, and the tune on the street may coalesce into one anti-American bloc.

America's closest allies, Saudi and Egypt, may become the source of America's greatest problems.

If this meeting of cold and warm fronts occurs, the Middle East could be in for a very tough time. But, what has not yet been considered is the effect of the butterfly. There is still the possibility that homegrown Arab reformist and modernising trends, such as those in some of the Gulf states, may percolate positively throughout the Middle East bringing a wave of constructive evolution instead of the hurricane.

The writer is a former UN and Canadian diplomat, a commentator on Middle East and international affairs.