What does Iran’s nuclear deal mean for Arabs?

Twelve years after an international crisis erupted over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and following 20 months of arduous and sometimes frustrating negotiations a final deal was brokered Tuesday between Tehran and its international interlocutors. It was described as “historic” but “not perfect” by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and was praised by United States President Barack Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a major milestone, opening a new chapter in relations between Tehran and the rest of the world. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, a hardliner in the negotiations, said the deal “was sufficiently robust for 10 years”.

Both sides will argue that they walked away with a winning deal; one that will have regional and international repercussions. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was a historic mistake, while Gulf commentators stressed that the deal will test Iran’s regional ambitions amid predictions that Tehran is likely to force itself as a broker in the crises gripping Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Experts and lawmakers will spend hours and days dissecting the 80-page thick document and its relevant supplements in search of loopholes and concessions. The deal will prove to be a tough sell for Rouhani and Obama in their respective legislatures. But both sides want this deal and they will make sure that after long deliberations the pact is adopted in both the US Congress and Iranian parliament. For Obama it is the long awaited foreign policy breakthrough — his legacy — while for Rouhani it is a triumph by moderates over the hardliners. Coming in the penultimate year for US presidential elections, Republican hopefuls, and some Democrats, will do their best to delegitimise the deal as a major compromise to a dangerous Middle Eastern state. Israel will play a key role in discrediting the accord.

Arms embargo

Overall the deal, while recognising Iran’s nuclear programme, introduces strict monitoring and inspection procedures. It limits Iran’s capability in pursuing the militarisation of its nuclear programme any time in the near future. It also keeps in force the UN’s arms embargo for a period of five to eight years but allows uranium enrichment to continue at reduced levels. Iran’s compliance will be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and any breach will translate into the re-imposition of economic, financial and oil sanctions.

In return the biggest immediate reward for Tehran will be the removal of such sanctions which have crippled Iran’s economy and driven it to the brink of collapse. This is why the majority of the Iranian people support the deal, in spite of criticisms by the country’s hardline clergy including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The ratification of the deal will bring immediate economic benefits to Iran, but it will also give the moderate flank within the political establishment the upper hand, for the first time in many years. The other valuable benefit will come in the form of ending Iran’s political isolation and its slow rehabilitation into the international community. In that sense, the deal will have a direct impact on Iran’s internal political debate. With the country opening up to the world, the issues of political reform, human rights, freedom of expression will resurface again.

Iran’s Arab neighbours, especially the Gulf countries, will view with curiosity and suspicion Tehran’s slow readmission into the world community. The big question will be this: Will the deal make Iran more aggressive in pursuing its regional agenda or will it make it more willing to become a broker of solutions to the region’s cumbersome and bloody conflicts. There are two sides to this: Those who believe that Tehran, now free of sanctions, will do more to polarise the region and augment its support for its allies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen; thus resulting in more bloodshed and destruction. And there is another side that believes that Iran’s moderate flank, having scored a major victory, will choose to normalise relations with Arab neighbours and play a constructive role in finding political solutions to the conflicts and even join efforts to defeat Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) militants.

It is not yet clear which path Iran’s leadership will take. It could be a combination of both. But what is important at this juncture is for the Arab side to underscore the need to capitalise on the recent nuclear deal by launching a series of dialogues with Iran. The Islamic Republic is a geographical, cultural and historical reality and such facts cannot be erased. The Arabs are right to believe that the deal will pave the way for a new era of détente between Tehran and Washington and between Iran and the West. But this must not come at the expense of legitimate Arab interests and their right in stemming Iran’s influence in their own strategic space. The deal offers an opportunity to test Iran’s intentions by sending a good-will message to its moderates as they boost their influence within the political establishment. For a change the Arab side must take the initiative and act now as Iran revels in its recent achievement.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.