Bihar votes again: A high-stakes test for all sides

As the festive season gets underway in India, the next big political battle is upon us - the Bihar assembly election only a few weeks away. The fight for Bihar is a high stakes one for all the players. For the Bharatiya Janata Party - Janata Dal (United), it is a fight against anti-incumbency, a test for brand Modi and whether is can still override headwinds on the ground. For the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), it is a battle for relevance, a crucial moment to see if the ‘vote stealing’ card worked and whether the young leadership of Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi can make a big impact. And then there is the unknown factor - Prashant Kishor who could be spoiler or kingmaker or simply make no impact at all. Here is how the cards stack up so far.

For the BJP, Bihar has not been an easy fight despite its dominance in the rest of the Hindi heartland. The party came second to the RJD in the 2020 polls with 80 MLAs. And this time the BJP is worried that the anti-incumbency Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faces could drag them down as well. Nitish Kumar who is said to be facing some health issues, is looking tired and jaded. If his party doesn’t do well, the BJP is quite likely to move in and split the JDU ranks.

As for this election, the BJP’s strength lies in the Modi card, but lack of a viable local leadership in the state is a big weakness. BJP leaders are hoping that welfare schemes will pull it through. Last month, the Prime Minister launched a scheme that transferred Rs10,000 into the bank accounts of over 7.5 million women in Bihar. In the recent past these are the schemes that have helped the BJP win big in state polls.

Chance at making an impact

For Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, this Bihar election is a chance at making some sort of an impact after years of being on the sidelines. In 2020, the party won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. This time, Rahul Gandhi’s rallies on ‘vote stealing’ drew big crowds but with the publication of the electoral rolls showing no mass deletion of names, the jury is out on whether the issue will still make a huge impact on the ground. Nevertheless, buoyed by the response to Rahul Gandhi’s rallies, the Congress is driving a hard bargain in seat sharing talks with its ally, the RJD.

For the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, this is a real chance at becoming chief minister and a test for his leadership. He is the face of the opposition campaign in Bihar and his focus has largely been on the issues that matter most to young people - jobs and welfare. Interestingly, a new CVoter survey that was done between February and September shows Tejashwi as the most preferred face for chief minister at 35.5%. Nitish Kumar is far behind at 16%.

X factor

The X factor in this election is former poll strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor whose Jan Suraj party seems to be making quite a buzz. But whether that translates into votes is the real question. The CVoter survey shows Kishor as the second most favoured chief ministerial face after Tejashwi Yadav, at 23% which came as a big surprise. Jan Suraj has decided to contest all 243 seats in Bihar and Kishor’s main poll plank is clean governance in a state that has been riddled by corruption for decades.

Kishor has been on the ground doing padyatras and trying to reach out to frustrated youth looking for better opportunities. But caste is still a huge factor in Bihar, and a party without a caste network may not make it far. Even if he does not win many seats, Kishor could still end up splitting the opposition vote and helping the NDA.

Ultimately, beyond state politics, Bihar has major national political ramifications. The BJP wants to solidify its gains in Delhi, Haryana and Maharashtra with a Bihar victory. It will test its sudden decision to announce a caste census after opposing it all this time. It will also test how far brand Modi can still go. But as Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand show, the BJP is not invincible. Which is why Bihar is an even bigger litmus test for the opposition.