Bihar’s political soap opera: Nitish vs Lalu, Kishor, Paswan

Once called “Sushan Babu” (good administrator) in admiration of his transformation of Bihar from “jungle raj,” the 74-year-old Nitish Kumar, Bihar’s Chief Minister, is now derisively called “Kursi Kumar” (chair Kumar) — a nod to his insatiable appetite for power — and “Paltu Chacha” (for his breathtaking political somersaults across the ideological spectrum).

For the first time in Bihar politics, a diminished Kumar — who has presided over the most lacklustre administration (trusting only four senior officials), cut off from the political pulse and even his party, with son Nishant Kumar, 50, a permanent watchful presence — is not dominating the political discourse in hyper-political Bihar.

At the “chai biscuit” sessions on every street corner, stories about his “senior moments,” complete with supposed insider information, are told with relish but also with a certain amount of good-natured understanding of human frailties. “Budhapa sab koh ata hai” (everyone gets old) is the consensus takeaway, brushed off with the biscuit crumbs.

As Kumar has been reduced to the sum of human frailties, his party and ally BJP are clearly worried, especially after the successful roadshow where the INDIA opposition alliance showcased unity and tried to debut a new political order for Bihar, with Tejaswi Yadav front and centre.

His father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and Nitish Kumar were the two Bihari leaders who dominated the state’s politics for decades, in a near-filmy version of the 70s blockbuster Deewar about estranged brothers. Yadav and Kumar have run the gamut — from partners and allies while being friends to sworn enemies — with Yadav mocking Kumar’s tenderly nursed Prime Ministerial ambitions.

Ah, those pesky PM ambitions of Kumar, now buried forever as a result of Modi’s ascent and the harsh realities of rarefied politics where there is only one job and one candidate for that job. Two takeaways that my readers of SWAT analysis will savour: Kumar once fancied his chances as the “secular” challenger to Modi and even had BJP posters showing him sharing a stage with Modi torn down across Patna in a rage. Yet, underscoring the ruthlessness of politics and the fact that there are no permanent friends and no permanent allies in power, Modi and Kumar patched up several times to rule Bihar.

This time around, Kumar’s insecurity is on full view as his party, the JDU, demands a single seat more than the BJP in the seat share — between 100 and 105 each. This is to convey to voters that Kumar is still the leader of the alliance and that the BJP has full faith in his leadership. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had one seat (17) more than the JDU (16), and now the JDU wants similar symbolism.

Chirag Paswan, the other ally, is also complicating the relationship with his demand for 40 seats. Neither the BJP nor the JDU is inclined to concede, and sources say he will not get more than 20 seats in the seat share. Paswan has made no secret of wanting to be chief minister of Bihar and is likely to even contest the polls to underscore his seriousness to the voters.

Enter Prashant Kishor, another friend turned foe of Kumar. Kishor is the unknown quantity of this Bihar election, contesting as a candidate for the first time. At one time, the ace political consultant was so close to Kumar that he lived with him at his chief ministerial residence, 1 Anne Marg. Kishor, who has stratospheric ambitions, put it about that he was Kumar’s political heir after joining the JDU. A livid Kumar threw him out of the party and added, woundingly, that he had taken Kishor into the JDU on Amit Shah’s recommendation.

Kishor is still livid and trying to spoil Kumar’s bid for power. But Kishor’s politics are a puzzle, as he attacks both the INDIA alliance and the JDU. To understand his politics, you must remember: he never attacks Modi and Shah. Your silent partners and “B” teams are critical in electoral politics.

Kumar’s political journey has left him miniaturised — an itty-bitty leader who never wanted to put his hold on power in danger. By always securing the CM’s chair, he gave up all pretence of national leadership and ideological convictions. Will Bihar give him another shot at his obsession — the chair — again? The jury’s out.