Boeing forecasts demand for 30,900 aircraft over 20 years

Dubai: Boeing predicts demand for 30,900 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, creating a market of $3.6 trillion (Dh13.2 trillion), with the Middle East positioned as the second strongest market, it said in its global forecast unveiled yesterday in London.

Demand is backed by expected growth in passenger traffic as world gross domestic product rises, especially in the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific, Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said during an international teleconference.

On worldwide GDP growth of 3.2 per cent, the major driver of air travel, the number of passengers is expected to rise by 4.2 per cent.

Responding to the industry's needs, airlines will place new aircraft orders and are expected to increase fleet sizes by 3.3 per cent, the Chicago-based aircraft manufacturer predicts.

"In the past, airlines have developed their networks with more flights to more places rather than flying larger and larger aircraft. We expect this trend to continue," Tinseth said.

"The world market is doing much better than last year, but there are still challenges. Looking at 2010, we see a world economy that continues to recover.

"We expect the world economy to grow above the long-term trend this year. As a result, both passenger and cargo travel will grow this year. Airline revenue and yields are up, but fuel prices remain volatile."

Single-aisle

Of the 30,900 new aircraft, the majority are expected to be single-aisle planes, representing 47 per cent worth $1,680 billion, with wide-bodied jets following just below at 45 per cent of the market and worth $1,630 billion.

Large aircraft, such as the Boeing 747 and the Airbus A380, will account for a small piece of the pie at 6 per cent but still capture $220 billion in value.

For regional jets, aircraft with lower capacity, demand comprises 2 per cent of the total, valued at $60 billion.

The single-aisle segment's continued growth worldwide is due to the proliferation of low-cost carriers, emerging markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continuing instability of fuel prices. The single-aisle segment has outpaced long-haul planes over the last decade and will continue to rise as older fleets are retired.

The Asia-Pacific region will witness the strongest market gain, with China leading the way.

"Today, about one-third of all airline traffic touches the Asia-Pacific region, and as a result of the growth in this market, by 2029 almost 43 per cent of all traffic will be to, from, or within the region," said Tinseth.

The airlines of the Asia-Pacific region will also be the largest buyers of twin-aisle aircraft — about 40 per cent of demand.

Farnborough airshow

Emirates airline and Mubadala Aerospace are going to make major announcements at the Farnborough International Airshow to be held from July 19-25.

Emirates is expected to make purchase announcement, topping up its existing orderbook. "We are going to make a few announcements at the Farnborough airshow," a Mubadala official told Gulf News.

During the last airshow at Farnborough, $88.7 billion worth (Dh325.7 billion) of orders was announced. The 2008 event also featured 165 aircraft in static displays and spectacular flying displays and the public weekend attracted a staggering 153,000 visitors.

"With its existing exhibition halls, flying displays and UAV pavilion, FIA 2010 will evolve its business theme to include a number of new networking initiatives such as a themed conference and seminar programme, a ‘Meet Your Buyer' event and a day dedicated to International Futures for Youth. Additionally, FIA 2010 will feature a dedicated ‘Space Zone'," organisers said.