Trump weighs Iran strikes or deal after midterm loss as Vance urges agreement, Qatar mediates; Brent oil falls to $93

As Washington navigates the fallout from a sweeping Republican electoral defeat, Iran's chief negotiator in talks with the US, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has launched a blistering critique of American leadership, accusing officials of bringing "losing gambler energy" to the table while America teeters on an "Israel-First cliff".

In a post on X, Ghalibaf wrote, "Losing gambler energy, can't walk away from the table. Boss is prepping the next war phase while America teeters on an Israel-First cliff. Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?"

Following the drubbing of US President Donald Trump's Republican Party in the midterm elections, Iranians set fire to a giant poster featuring the American leader and his allies at a rally in Tehran.

In the capital's central Enghelab square, crowds gathered to observe the burning of the poster which also featured his Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

The war was started by Trump and Netanyahu, who launched a massive wave of surprise attacks against Iran which killed supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and others on February 28 and sparked the wider Middle East war.

Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis towards the Madinah region, the Saudi-led coalition said on Thursday, according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA). The announcement came shortly after Saudi Civil Defence issued an all-clear for Yanbu Governorate, which lies in the Madinah region, urging residents to avoid gathering or filming.

Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defence said the danger has passed in Yanbu Governorate, in an alert posted on X on Thursday. Residents were urged to keep following Civil Defence instructions for their safety and to avoid gathering or filming. The authority also warned that filming, publishing or sharing information about the interception of missiles and drones, or the sites where they fall, could lead to legal action.

A tanker was struck by two unidentified projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The incident took place at 11.20pm UTC on Wednesday (3.20am UAE time on Thursday), and the UKMTO said the report has been verified. The status of the crew, the extent of the damage and any environmental impact are not yet known. Vessels in the area have been advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to the UKMTO as authorities investigate.

Yemen’s Houthis are demanding $51 billion from Saudi Arabia as compensation for years of airstrikes and blockade, along with official recognition of Ansarallah as Yemen’s rulers, as baseline conditions for ending the war, according to The Wall Street Journal. Riyadh reportedly made contact after Houthi attacks on Aramco facilities, the East-West Pipeline, King Khalid International Airport and Red Sea tankers, as well as territorial gains around Bab el-Mandeb.

The Houthis say the $51 billion figure covers Saudi strikes and the prolonged blockade. Other amounts have since been discussed, but the price of a deal remains in the tens of billions.

Dubai's Emirates Group reported revenue of Dh66.2 billion for the first half of its 2026-27 financial year, with profit before tax reaching Dh4.1 billion, as the Dubai-based aviation group navigated regional challenges and higher fuel costs.

The group, which includes Emirates airline and airport services provider dnata, recorded a profit after tax of Dh3.6 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2026. Its workforce stood at 128,237 employees during the period.

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Two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to Reuters, citing Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC said the vessels had tried to use unauthorised routes through the waterway. One tanker hit a mine while crossing a passage south of the strait, while a supertanker caught fire as it was leaving the route in the eastern part of the waterway. A tugboat that moved in to help put out the blaze on the second vessel also caught fire, the IRGC said.

South Korea's defence ministry said Thursday it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft and an explosive ordnance disposal team to waters near the Strait of Hormuz as part of a mission to help keep the waterway open.

The announcement comes as Seoul maintains it will not deploy troops to intervene militarily in the Iran war, while seeking to protect commercial shipping and energy supplies through one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.

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US President Donald Trump is reportedly asking aides whether Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth should stay, and Republicans are pointing at him over the Iran war after Tuesday’s midterm rout.

Publicly, Trump says Hegseth is "doing a very good job".

CBS News reported Trump has been asking advisers, in person and by phone, whether Hegseth should stay after Republicans’ losses, citing multiple sources. Other sources said he has not decided to replace him.

Possible successors: One source told CBS that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been floated as a replacement.

The White House said Trump has "full confidence" in Hegseth.

CNN reported that GOP lawmakers and allies are increasingly blaming Hegseth for the war, with a possible impeachment vote looming as early as next week.

Vice President JD Vance wrote that the reason Republicans lost was the war. Trump told The Wall Street Journal the war was a piece of the defeat, but defended his handling of it.

CBS reported some White House aides expect part of the blame to fall on Adm. Dan Caine, and that Democrats were already trying to impeach Hegseth before the election.

The Atlantic reported earlier this week that Trump had been seeking someone to blame for the course of the war, with frustration directed at Caine and Hegseth.

What's next: Watch out whether Trump moves against Hegseth, how Democrats use their new majorities to investigate or impeach him, and whether any shake-up changes Iran policy as Trump chooses between strikes and a deal.

Oil prices extended their sharp retreat Thursday, with Brent sliding to its lowest level in about two months as traders bet on diplomacy over a return to war.

As of 9:59 am Beijing time on Nov. 5, Brent crude futures stood at $93.63 a barrel, down 99 cents, or 1.05%. WTI futures fell 99 cents, or 1.12%, to $87.13. Murban physical crude slipped $1.27, or 1.24%, to $100.90.

Thursday’s dip follows a steep fall earlier in the week. Brent dropped nearly 8% on Wednesday and traded below $100 for the first time since early October. It peaked near $118 on Friday and settled at $103.60 on Tuesday. That puts today’s price roughly a fifth below Friday’s peak, by my calculation.

The drop followed Democrats’ sweep of Congress in the US midterms. Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican losses. Markets bet Trump may shift toward diplomacy, with Qatar stepping up mediation, and his statement that the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran eased escalation fears.

Qatari mediators are trying to win US and Iranian backing for a draft agreement meant to head off renewed fighting and possibly restart direct talks "within days". Earlier reporting said the draft outlines a three-day sequence of confidence-building steps. Iran has demanded an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and release of frozen funds before it will reopen Hormuz. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly reached out to Rezaei about ceasefire terms, though no meeting has been scheduled.

US officials told Axios the military is finishing preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations, including sending more assets to the region. Preparations are not an order.

Trump told the Financial Times on election night that he had no immediate plans to order attacks, and before the vote he told Axios he was in "no rush". The US also struck Qeshm Island on Tuesday, and Iran said it destroyed a US MQ-1 drone there.

President Donald Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran, a deal or continued economic pressure after Republicans’ midterm losses, Axios reported Wednesday (Nov. 4). He acknowledged the war contributed to the defeat but remains undecided, leaving even close aides uncertain.

Vice President JD Vance leads advisers urging an agreement and privately criticized Netanyahu’s Iran assessment. CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favour keeping the naval blockade.

Israeli opposition bloc leader Gadi Eisenkot on Wednesday vowed to strengthen ties with the United States if selected as prime minister, saying he would work with President Donald Trump to stabilise the Middle East.

"Under my leadership, we will renew and deepen that partnership, strengthen the bipartisan foundations that have long sustained it," Eisenkot said, adding that he looked forward to working with Trump to "advance our shared security interests, strengthen regional stability, and open new doors to prosperity for the peoples of the Middle East".

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday acknowledged that the Iran war was the key factor in his party's sweeping midterm election losses, after Vice President JD Vance urged Republicans to be "honest" about the unpopular conflict's impact.

Asked if he agreed with Vance's remark that the Iran was "the reason we lost," Trump, speaking to reporters at his White House ballroom construction site, said: "I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short term."

"But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again. Because long term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon," he added.

Day 248: US VP Vance says Iran war is 'the reason we lost' midterms

Day 247: US strikes Iran's Qeshm island

Day 246: Trump threatens Iran with military action

Day 246: UAE hopes for peace, ‘braced for worst’

Day 245: Rubio says US yet to decide on new Iran strikes

Day 244: US denies Iran destroyed sea drone in Strait of Hormuz

Day 243: US fires senior army general in latest ouster: reports

Day 242: Iran discusses plan to end war and reopen Hormuz

Day 241: Iran says supreme leader met with security chief

Day 240: 'Entering new path could be considered': Iran tells US