Gold surged 26% so far in 2025: What next for UAE shoppers, investors?

Dubai: Whether you're a gold shopper eyeing a good deal in Deira or an investor tracking global trends, 2025 has been a standout year so far for gold.

In just six months, prices have jumped 26%, setting 26 new records—and that has everyone asking: Will prices keep rising, or is a dip on the cards?

As of today, 22K gold in Dubai is selling at Dh374 per gram, while 24K gold is priced at Dh403.50 per gram. These rates reflect the current retail prices at major jewellery outlets across the emirate. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait.)

Here’s what the World Gold Council (WGC) says in its Mid-Year Outlook, and what it means for you in the UAE.

What happened so far in 2025?

• Gold surged 26% in the first half of the year — outperforming stocks, bonds, and even oil.

• The US dollar weakened, interest rates remained steady, and geopolitical uncertainty drove demand.

• Central banks and investors around the world loaded up on gold, sending prices to all-time highs.

In Dubai, this rally pushed 22K gold to hover around Dh367/gram and 24K near Dh396/gram—a level that still seems to be holding, with some fluctuations.

Will gold prices rise in second half?

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the World Gold Council outlines three possible scenarios for gold prices. In the most likely or "base case," gold is expected to stay relatively stable, with a small chance of rising by up to 5%. This means prices might not change much, offering a bit of breathing room for both shoppers and investors.

If global conditions worsen—like inflation rising again, economic growth slowing down, or geopolitical tensions increasing—gold could jump by another 10% to 15%. This “bull case” would see safe-haven demand rise sharply, pushing prices even higher.

On the flip side, if the global economy recovers more smoothly than expected and trade tensions ease, gold could lose some of its gains from earlier this year. In that case, prices may fall by 12% to 17%, which would be welcome news for buyers waiting for a better deal.

In short, gold could either hold steady, rise further, or drop—depending largely on how the global economy, inflation, and political tensions play out.

UAE gold buyers: Should you buy now?

If you're shopping for wedding jewellery, gifts, or just love a good deal, here's what to consider:

• Prices have stabilised slightly after June’s peak, but are still high historically.

• If you're not in a rush, waiting a few weeks could help—especially if peace talks progress globally.

• But, if tensions rise again or central banks keep buying, prices could climb quickly.

Bottom line? If you see a small drop in Dubai gold rates (22K under Dh365), it may be a good window to buy.

UAE gold investors: What’s the play?

If you're investing in physical gold, ETFs, or gold-linked funds, here are the key signals:

• The US Federal Reserve may cut rates by 50 basis points by year-end—a plus for gold.

• Geopolitical risks (US-China, Middle East, trade wars) remain high, supporting gold demand.

• Central banks are still buying, though not at record levels—this keeps a floor under prices.

• But higher gold prices may curb consumer demand and lead to more recycling, which could cap gains.

Investor takeaway? Gold remains a strong hedge against uncertainty. But watch inflation and global politics. It’s a good time to stay invested, but maybe not go all in.

Final word: What to expect in late 2025

Gold has had a blockbuster start to the year, but the rest of 2025 could be more nuanced. For both UAE buyers and investors, it’s about timing and watching the news.

• Watch for signs of peace or more tension globally.

• Monitor the US dollar and interest rate decisions.

• Stay alert to Dubai gold rate movements—even a few dirhams can make a big difference in total cost.

Whether you're buying bangles or balancing portfolios, gold will continue to glitter—but maybe not every day.