Thailand-Cambodia clash displaces 200,000 — is peace still possible?

The Thai-Cambodian border has erupted into its deadliest conflict in more than a decade, with both sides accusing each other of aggression and the humanitarian toll mounting rapidly. 

As of July 27, 2025, fighting continues along multiple flashpoints despite mounting international pressure — including heavy US involvement — for an immediate ceasefire.

The region now watches anxiously as two Southeast Asian neighbours stand on the edge of a broader conflict.

Situation on the ground

Entire Thai towns near the Cambodian frontier have become ghostly and deserted, as residents flee from intense artillery exchanges and airstrikes. 

CNN reports over 150,000 civilians displaced from both sides of the border — just one measure of the severe human cost. 

Meanwhile, world leaders are urging that humanitarian needs and regional stability take priority over historical grievances and nationalist fervour.

Up to 170,000 displaced

Independent counts from other major agencies estimate the range of displaced people up to 200,000, with at least 35 fatalities, the majority being civilians.

Journalists describe scenes of panic and hardship as villagers, many elderly or disabled, were forced to escape in haste, camping in temporary shelters such as university gymnasiums, or even makeshift tents by the roadside.

Triggers and escalation

The immediate trigger for this flare-up can be traced to a sequence of violent incidents: a Cambodian soldier was killed in a confrontation in late May — a clash that sharply escalated diplomatic hostilities. 

Tensions further escalated following landmine explosions this month that wounded several Thai soldiers; both sides traded blame, accusing each other of border infractions and provocations, particularly around contested temple complexes such as Ta Muen Thom.

Colonial legacy 

The border disputes between the two Asean countries stem from ambiguous demarcations under the Franco-Siamese treaties of 1904–07 and the ongoing dispute over the Preah Vihear and other ancient temple complexes. 

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded Preah Vihear to Cambodia in 1962, but surrounding land remains contested, causing episodic flare-ups ever since, notably from 2008–2011.

On July 24, 2025, armed fighting had broken out in earnest, including shelling, rocket fire, and for the first time in recent years, use of airpower — Thailand confirmed airstrikes against Cambodian positions in retaliation for Cambodian artillery strikes that killed civilians in Thai border provinces.

From August 1: US tariff sanctions

The crisis has prompted an urgent response from the United States, with President Donald Trump personally mediating. On July 26, he announced that leaders from both countries had agreed to initiate immediate ceasefire negotiations under US pressure.

Trump warned both nations that the US would suspend trade talks and impose new 36% tariffs on Thai and Cambodian imports (effective August 1) if hostilities continued.

Both Thailand and Cambodia have expressed, in principle, their willingness to negotiate, but mutual distrust and demands for “sincerity” from the other side remain sticking points. 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been tasked with direct engagement alongside regional Asean partners. 

Asean, meanwhile, is convening talks in Malaysia — scheduled for Monday (July 28) — to help mediate a settlement.

The United Nations Security Council also held an urgent private meeting at Cambodia’s request to discuss the situation, urging both parties to de-escalate and allow humanitarian aid corridors.

Next steps and prospects for peace

With fighting continuing in multiple sectors of the 500-mile border, and both nations having recalled ambassadors and closed border crossings, the immediate humanitarian priority remains a cessation of hostilities and the establishment of corridors for refugees.

The scheduled ceasefire talks in Kuala Lumpur, brokered with US and Asean involvement, represent the best hope yet for ending the violence. Both capitals, however, remain wary: Thailand insists on “genuine goodwill and concrete action” from Cambodia, while Cambodia is pushing for international arbitration and a demilitarised zone around disputed temple areas. 

The outcome of these talks — and the ability of the US and ASEAN to apply meaningful leverage — will likely determine whether this crisis abates or continues to endanger thousands more in the region.