Where politics is about freebies

Chennai: It's raining freebies in Tamil Nadu as the countdown to the May 8 vote begins.

There are two-rupees-a-kilogram of rice schemes offered by one party, 10kg free rice schemes offered by the other, colour televisions by one, jobs to one member of every family by the other.

Chief Minister Jayalalitha's home in suburban Poes Garden is deathly quiet. The centre of gravity has shifted to her campaign in the interior where in a sign of desperation she has even descended from her van to interact with the masses.

There is frisson of excitement at Anna Arivalayam, the sprawling headquarters of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party led by the Muthuvel Karunanidhi clan as one exit poll after another that predicts a close fight now says the DMK has a clear edge.

Rising sun

But whether the DMK's 'rising sun' cadres singe Tamil Nadu Jayalalitha's 'two leaves' to a crisp or not, the question of how long Karunanidhi can stave off the inevitable family feud once he walks into the sunset is the buzz at every campaign stop in Sivaganga constituency yesterday, as is the betrayal of ally Vaiko, likened by some to 'Yettappan' the man who betrayed his leader Kathagopan to the British. But first, Karunanidhi's prospects of election victory. One view is that Jayalalitha's All India Annaa Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), riding on the goodwill generated by her handling of the tsunami disaster and the steady stream of multinationals, the IT park she has brought to the state read employment will boost popularity ratings. Women support her for abolishing country liquor shops and the lottery, bane of many poor households.

The DMK knows that in the 2004 parliamentary election, she polled 1.5 million more votes than Karunanidhi's party. Yet, she lost all 39 parliamentary seats because she could not counter the seven-party rainbow alliance of the DMK that covered the political spectrum from the centrist Congress to the right-wing Muslim League, the Left and the caste-based party support of the Vanniyars, and Telugu-speaking Naickers.

Starvation deaths

Second, to win a majority in the 234 constituencies, she must rise above the resentment set off by her callous Marie Antoinettesque "let them eat rats, rats are a delicacy" remark when the farmers of Thanjavur were dying of starvation, and the sacking and reinstatement of over hundreds of thousands of angry government employees. Equally, while anti-incumbency is a factor, and people dole out punishment to the unworthy, public memory of past wrong-doing is notoriously short.

If the fight remains neck and neck, this may be the first election when the southern state sees the induction of a coalition government. It's the nightmare third scenario where neither Dravidian party comes back in strength to form a majority government on its own.

Karunanidhi, as canny as ever had hinted as much when he said there was nothing wrong with coalition governments, setting off intense speculation he was not expecting to do as well as his party was claiming they would. Or, given Jayalalitha's proven ability now to poach a Madurai businessman says Rs430 million (Dh35.83 million) changed hands this was Karunanidhi's way of keeping his six-party flock together until the election is through.

Succession

Once that hurdle is crossed, Karunanidhi has one more the issue of succession. The offer of senior positions in an alliance government is to ensure the partnership does not come unglued when he anoints his son M.K. Stalin as his successor. There are doubts over Stalin's ability to govern, already a target by rival brother Alazhagiri and rising cousins Dayanidhi Maran and Kalanidhi Maran who have been runaway successes.

"Even if Karunanidhi wins the election, he's 82 an unhealthy 82. The election seems to have given him a new lease of life but in due course he will want to hand over to his son Stalin," says analyst Sam Rajappa.

But will that pass muster, first, within the DMK rank and file? And second, within the six-party Democratic Party alliance where there are other senior leaders like the Pattali Makkal Katchi's Ramadoss, the Congress's G.K. Vasan and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram who may not accept him as the leader of the alliance.