Situation in Mideast deteriorating fast

George W. Bush is showing his true colours. Within three months of occupying the White House, he has picked a fight with China over the aircraft incident, rubbed Russia the wrong way with insistence on National Missile Defence (NMD), angered the European Union by refusing to ratify the Kyoto protocol and above all, needlessly provoked his Arab allies by nakedly supporting Israel's repression of Palestinians. An unenviable record in foreign policy in such a short time.

The most serious consequences of his policies are unfolding in the Middle East. In what now appears to be a case of bad timing, his swearing in as president was followed shortly by the election victory of Ariel Sharon in Israel. The two together are now wreaking havoc in the Middle Eastern peace arena.

The situation in Occupied territories has rarely been so bad. After having initially mouthed peace sentiments, Sharon is back to his old self and chances of peace have never looked more remote.

The level of Israeli violence has increased to an alarming degree, and a war-like scenario has developed in the area. Israeli tanks and helicopter gunships are bombarding Palestinian homes and offices and Israeli assassination squads are murdering Palestinian activists in cold blood in broad daylight. Even Palestinian negotiators are coming under fire. The gloves are off.

The reaction from the other side is natural. Palestinians are doing what they can to fight back. Arabs are aghast at the situation. Even the strongest of U.S. allies are now issuing strong anti-American statements because they cannot under any circumstances ignore what is being done to Palestinians. The Gulf War partners are seeing their expectations sink in front of their eyes.

The prospects of what all this could lead to are frightening. Emboldened by extreme American partisanship, Sharon is escalating the conflict by the day. He has never been one for talks, and least of all now when Republicans under George Bush Jr. are applauding him and his brutal policies. Sharon obviously believes in a military solution to the Palestinian issue. He won the election on a hardline platform and he now wants to live up to his campaign promises.

But is he aware of the consequences?

Arab opinion is hardening with each passing day. The Arab man on the street is calling for Israeli blood. Official rhetoric from Arab governments is becoming harsher after each Palestinian killing. The Hezbollah is stepping up its activities, and for once it may be lauded by people across the Arab world who are demanding an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth.

More and more Arabs are now saying that Israel only understands and respects the language of the gun. This perception is cemented by the complete failure of talks, and Israeli insistence that all negotiations must be done on its terms and conditions. Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, UAE and other GCC countries, all are becoming increasingly vocal against Israel and America. This Arab unity against Tel Aviv and Washington is itself a refreshing development, or a dangerous one depending on which way one looks at it.

Refreshing because such unity has not been witnessed for decades. Dangerous because last time there existed such a unity, war ensued. Not that Arabs are to blame. Sharon should know that his upping the ante can lead to events spiralling out of control. Hezbollah's attacks are going to increase as Palestinians continue to be killed by Israel. At some point Israel will decide to strike back at Hezbollah's position across the border. This may pull Lebanon/Syria into the conflict.

If that happens, Jordan may not have much of a choice. Will Egypt stay aloof? Iraq will jump in and Iran will get involved one way or the other. The region will be on fire.

And all this because George Bush does not know when to rein in Israel.

He has an array of foreign policy 'experts' advising him but somehow none wants to accept the reality that a one-sided Middle East policy is just not viable in this day and age. There is too much at stake.

To add to these troubles, Sharon's policies are ensuring that all other options close fast. Meaningful talks can now be counted out. The gap between the two sides is simply too much. The only thing possible is stopping or curtailing violence. But this too now looks difficult for two reasons.

First, Israel and America continue to blame Palestinians for the violence, refusing to recognise that Palestinians are merely defending themselves against one of the most powerful armies in the region. As long as this blame game continues, there are little chances that violence will come to an end.

Second, Yasser Arafat cannot just switch off violence with the push of a button, like Sharon and Bush want him to. This is so because he did not initiate or orchestrate it in the first place. The intifada is a genuine and spontaneous outburst of anger against persecution, repression, murder, denial of fundamental rights and violation of all norms of justice and fairplay.

Arafat may be a great leader but even he cannot ask old and young men, and even children to fight the Israeli goliath with their bare hands when they have seen more than four hundred of their friends and relatives gunned down by Israeli forces.

They are facing live bullets not because Arafat has told them to but because there is something more intense, something deeper and more powerful which is propelling them. The more they are hit, the more they will fight back.

So talks are out, and ending of violence seems unlikely. Where does this leave the situation? Not very promising. Palestinians are losing men, women and children, but George Bush and his country are losing their moral authority and their respect.

The American veto in the United Nations Security Council against sending a protection force for Palestinians has further damaged its image among the Arabs and Muslims. What is of particular importance is the fact that the resolution enjoyed widespread support, and was borne of a genuine concern about the safety of Palestinian.

The whole world knows that Palestinians cannot do anything to save themselves from indiscriminate Israeli attacks using heavy weapons. Their suffering has been compounded by the economic squeeze put on them by Israel.

The combination of military and economic aggression is simply too brazen to be ignored by civilised countries. The United States has opted out of this category by its veto.

All this can be disastrous for Washington's immediate policy and its long term interests in the region. With Iraq gnawing away at UN sanction's legitimacy, and thus eroding America's credibility, and Palestinians dying by the hundreds because Bush doesn't want to "force peace", the Middle East is fast becoming a graveyard for American foreign policy.

This obviously cannot endure. Sooner or later thinking people in Washington will realise what a mess they are making in this important part of the world. Sooner or later they will understand that election rhetoric does not always stand up as real policy.

And then it may also dawn on them that Arabs cannot be taken for granted. It is then that they may take a fresh look at thei