Political acrobats in Beirut

Veteran Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt's career can be divided into four phases: 1977-2000, 2000-2002, 2002-2003, and 2004-present.

Between 1977-2000, he was Syria's strong and loyal ally in Lebanon, the man who stood up to the Israeli invasion in 1982, helped defeat the May 17, 1983 Agreement between Israel and ex-President Amin Gemayel, and helped defeat the anti-Syrian General Michel Aoun in 1990.

In post-war Lebanon (1990-2000), Jumblatt was rewarded lavishly and became the leading pro-Syrian statesman, minister and Member of Parliament, arguing briefly with Damascus in 1998 over the appointment of Emile Lahoud as president.

Phase two (2000-2002) was when Jumblatt allied himself with the anti-Syrian team, believing that Syria's days in Lebanon were numbered, especially after the withdrawal of Israel from South Lebanon in May 2000 and the death of Syrian President Hafez Al Assad in June 2000.

This phase witnessed the withdrawal of his VIP status in Damascus, and death threats were made against him within the Lebanese Parliament by the Baathist MP Assem Qanso.

It was also witness to his rapprochement with the Maronites during the historic visit of Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir to the mixed Druze-Christian district of the Shouf (Jumblatt's stronghold) in August 2001.

When it became clear that the Syrians were not about to leave Lebanon, Jumblatt made another U-turn, returning to the Syrian team in 2002-2003.

He received Lahoud, the man he hated, as a guest of honour at his castle in Mukhtara, and cemented his relationship with Damascus through his long-time friend, Syrian Vice-President Abdul Halim Khaddam, who also visited him in Mukhtara in May 2002.

Rather than go to Syria for talks, as is customarily done by Lebanese politicians seeking the grace of Damascus, Syria (embodied by Khaddam) went to Jumblatt.

I met Walid Jumblatt twice in 2002, once for coffee at his castle in his native Shouf district, and once for an interview at his palace in Beirut.

I had seen him many times before at the Damascus Sheraton Hotel in the 1980s, dining, drinking, and enjoying a good laugh with leading political figures from the Baath Party, whom he today accuses of having murdered his father Kamal Jumblatt in 1977.

Jumblatt, it must be noted, is married to a Damascene woman, the daughter of Ahmad Al Sharabati, a Syrian politician who was the Minister of Defence during the Arab-Israeli War in 1948.

The Druze warlord owns a beautiful, ancient home in Old Damascus, and has many friends within the Syrian political elite.

Latest phase

What I remember most about his palace in Mukhtara is a large portrait of the Syrian nationalist leader, Sultan Pasha Al Atrash.

The latest phase of the Jumblatt-Syria relationship began in September 2004 when Syria's allies in Lebanon renewed Lahoud's mandate as president, enraging the Druze leader, who had opposed him since day one, claiming that Lahoud was militarising the state and presidency.

Adding insult to Jumblatt's injured pride, Syria did nothing to prevent the resignation of Jumblatt's greatest ally, Rafiq Al Hariri, from the premiership.

Today, the escalation is reaching new heights as Jumblatt raises his anti-Syrian tone and strikes alliances with his former arch-enemies, ex-Army Commander Aoun, and Samir Geagea, the arrested leader of the Lebanese Forces (LF), a war-time Christian militia.

When Jumblatt decided to return to Syria's team in 2002, many factors influenced his decision. The Syrians were still very strong in Lebanon and had solidified their relationship with the United States by helping the FBI track down Al Qaida members in Europe, right after 9/11.

The opposition in Lebanon was still divided, Aoun's return seemed impossible, and so was the release of Geagea.

Today, however, he finds it ripe to change course, given the passing of UN Resolution 1559 and Syria's messed relationship with Washington. The warlord Geagea might be released soon, and Aoun will be returning to Lebanon.

Jumblatt recently declared, in a speech at Jesuit University in Beirut, that after 28 years of being an ally of Syria, he is now free and his conscience is clear.

Apparently, his conscience does not bother him for allying himself with Aoun, who bombed Christian districts of East Beirut in the late 1980s, killing tens of innocent civilians, or Geagea, who was arrested in 1994 and convicted of ordering the 1990 assassination of Dany Chamoun, the 1989 killing of LF official Elias Zayek, the assassination attempt on Defence Minister Michel Murr, the 1987 killing of Prime Minister Rashid Karameh, and the 1994 bombing of the Sayidet Al Najah Church in the Maronite village of Zouk Mikael.

Yet, Lebanon is the country of a million surprises. Geagea might not be released, and Aoun might not return to Lebanon. Syria might reach an agreement with the United States, and in return, receive a carte blanche to stay in Lebanon, similar to the one it received from George Bush Sr. after its participation in the 1991 Gulf War.

This would take place through cooperation in Iraq, or a peace deal with Israel, both of which would easily send UN Resolution 1559 into the dustbin of history.

All options

At present, Jumblatt is toying with all options and is scheduled to meet Aoun on February 15, 2005 for the first time in over 10 years, in Paris, at the home of Carlos Edde, another opposition figure who is dean of the Lebanese National Bloc.

If Aoun turns out to be a losing horse, and Geagea remains in jail, Jumblatt can always make another U-turn back to Syria.

Two options are already in the air in Beirut. One is getting Lahoud to step down, in order to defuse anger on the Lebanese street, and replace him with the more likeable, and yet-to-be tried Interior Minister Sulaiman Franjiyieh.

This option was revealed by Jumblatt himself. The other option is equally radical, yet in a different direction, and it calls for cancellation of the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2005, and extension of the current Parliament's mandate until November 27, 2007, the date on which Lahoud's presidency expires.

This was leaked by the Lebanese daily Al Nahar as a possible measure that Prime Minister Omar Karami plans on taking having the opposition live through another two years of Lahoud and a Parliament packed with pro-Syrian politicians.

The first option could easily bring Jumblatt back into the Syrian orbit, while if the second option prevails, he may as well remain "leader" of the opposition.

Dr Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.