PML-N, PPP-P to discuss seat adjustments

With the flurry of excitement over the expected return of Shahbaz Sharif, elected head of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group), having faded away, the party has decided to enter into an electoral agreement with its former arch rival, the Pakistan People's Party-Parliamentarian (PPP-P).

Both parties have become among the 71 registered with the election commission (EC), and therefore entitled to contest polls.

The agreement is a historic one given the past history of bitterness between the two groups. The leader of the PML-N, Raja Zafarul Haq, has said "this is the strongest electoral alliance ever created and it will produce astonishing results."

PPP leaders were equally upbeat about the accord. A spokesman confirmed it had been agreed on, and said, "Yes, details are just being polished up."

Whereas the PML-N and the PPP had earlier been working towards an electoral understanding, this process was halted after Shahbaz's election.

Shahbaz had made it clear that he disapproved of any "deal" with the PPP, a long time arch rival of the PML-N, both on the basis of tradition and ideology.

However, after the report that Shahbaz was not coming home from Saudi Arabia, local leaders of the PML-N appear to have decided that it is "judicious" to move towards seat-sharing arrangements.

So far the PML-N has not entered into any electoral alliance, and some fears are being voiced within the party that it may be swept aside by the PML, Quaid-e-Azam (PML-QA), which also has official backing.

A number of PML-N leaders, seen as occupying strong positions in their local areas, have already been approached to switch loyalties to the PML-QA.

The PML-N leadership is concerned that if this process continues, with leaders seeing a clear-cut advantage in being identified with the PML-QA, this could significantly weaken the Shahbaz-led party.

In such a situation, teaming up with the PPPP is seen as a move that could help both groups gain seats in the October polls.

The possibility of a further alliance by both groups with the Jamat-e-Islami (JI) or the Muttahida Mahaz-e-Amal (MMA) is said also to be a "possibility".

It may be noted that the assumption by Amin Makhdoom Fahim of the leadership of the PPPP has in fact made this task simpler.

In the past, the JI had been reluctant to do business with Benazir Bhutto, both because of her gender and her politics. However, Fahim has already met Qazi Hussain in Lahore.

Though no "final" agreement was reached, it is said "both leaders are keeping their options wide open."

It may be noted that both the JI and the MMA, a coalition of at least 10 major religious parties, are seen as an asset within any coalition given their strength. The PML-N is apparently optimistic it can persuade the MMA to link up with it, and as such pose a potent threat to the PML-QA.

In the absence of several strong alliances, it is feared the PML-N will in fact fare poorly at the polls. Problems within the MMA itself over policy on alliances is however said to be complicating matters.

Efforts to finalise a deal with the PPPP are therefore near formal completion, with both sides confirming this.

A series of secret meetings between the leaders of both sides are said to have been continuing for some days, and the current deal is now awaiting approval by the central leaders of both parties, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

PML-N leaders are meanwhile stating they are "no clearer about the overall position than before" regarding the Shahbaz situation.

While there are still some within the party who believe Shahbaz could return ahead of polls, the hopes of most have fizzled away after the firm stance taken by the military regime.

It is believed a senior media personality had assured the Sharifs that Shahbaz would be permitted to return, but this assurance is now thought to have resulted from a "misunderstanding".