Mideast poses biggest challenge to powell

The Bush presidency has finally arrived and the world is bracing for a more aggressive but less intrusive America. On Saturday Bush announced the appointment of Colin Powell as his Secretary of State, the first African-American to occupy this high office. Powell, a widely respected personality, laid out his vision of America's foreign policy in his speech after his appointment.

The speech is important in understanding the overall world view and approach of Powell and the new administration. He touched upon a number of issues in the speech and in response to questions. Among them were Middle East and Iraq.

"It is absolutely a given that under a Bush administration, America will remain very much engaged in the Middle East. I expect it to be a major priority of mine, and of the department. It will be based on the principle that we must always ensure that Israel lives in freedom, and in security and peace. But at the same time, we have to do everything we can to deal with the aspirations of the Palestinians and the other nations in the region who have an interest in this."

"And so I think America will continue to be a friend to all sides. America will continue to put forward ideas. America will remain engaged until we can find that solution to this most difficult problem."

It is revealing to note the reference to Israel, followed by a mention of Palestinians and other states. Also noticeable is his deliberate attempt to sound conciliatory towards all sides. This enunciation is important because Middle East is going to be one of the first issues that Bush and Powell will have to tackle after January 20.

The violence of the last three months between Israelis and Palestinians has refused to ebb away and the volatile situation has been plunged into greater uncertainty with the resignation of Prime Minister Ehud Barak and the start of campaigning for the forthcoming elections. Fresh bids at peace have stumbled on the rocks of mutual suspicion and mounting hostility. The introduction of the Nethanyahu factor has further complicated the situation.

The former prime minister, who was trounced at the polls by Barak last year, is now all set to make a comeback and polls have him enjoying a double digit lead over Barak. He has gone on record to say that if elected prime minister, he will not accept any agreements Barak makes now with the Palestinians. There is clearly trouble ahead.

But America too remains very much a part of the equation, even at this late stage. President Clinton has just about a month left before he hangs his spurs, but reports say he is ready to make a last ditch effort to get an agreement between Arafat and Barak. Termed the 'Camp David Plus' proposal, this new Clinton initiative suggests full sovereignty for Palestinians over the holy sites in exchange for them renouncing their demand for the return of refugees.

After his return from Northern Ireland, Clinton has dived right back into the Middle Eastern cauldron, with a 45-minute phone call to Arafat. There are yet chances that a round of talks might take place in Washington, perhaps as early as next week.

But despite all this hectic activity, the likelihood of an agreement being reached between Arafat and Barak remains remote. Which means that the Bush administration will be thrown into the deep end on January 20, and will have to make its policy clear very quickly.

Powell's statement is thus very important in gauging where America stands on the Palestinian-Israeli dispute, and what can be expected which might be different from the Clinton administration's outlook.

Although Bush was said to be less of an Israel-supporter than his opponent Al Gore, this should not be confused as a qualitative difference. The space for manoeuvrability that every U.S. president has on Israel is very little, and therefore Washington's policy towards Israel, institutionalised as it is, cannot change beyond a few shades.

Gore was seen as a more vocal and active supporter of Israel because of ideological commitments, and the fact that he chose a Jewish senator as his running mate. Bush does not have such extra baggage, and on top of this enjoys the advantage (here too) of being his father's son. Bush senior had very good ties with the Arab world as a result of the Gulf War and the Middle East peace efforts that followed. His son now gets to reap the benefits.

But despite all this, Bush has set the record state in his first important foreign policy statement after winning the presidency.

Speaking at the ceremony to nominate Powell, Bush stated in unambiguous words that his administration would continue to pursue efforts towards peace in the Middle East, "based, as any peace must be, on a secure Israel".

Israel will therefore very clearly be in its traditionally advantageous position in comparison to Palestinians as far as America is concerned. However given Bush's inexperience in foreign affairs, and his dependency on 'heavyweights' like Powell and Cheney to run foreign policy, direct presidential involvement will be absent. This will be a clear departure from the Clintonesque style which has seen unprecedented diplomatic activity at the highest level on the Middle East peace issue.

This will make a difference. Clinton became intimately involved in the details of the issue and thus came to have a direct bearing on the agenda.

At Camp David he spent nights sitting with the two parties, pushing and nudging them, and sometimes even dragging them, towards some sort of an agreement. This helped the process move forward, but it also brought America's pro-Israel prejudice into greater focus. At such close range, this bias began to colour the process more deeply, and thus alienated Palestinians to a greater degree.

Bush's inexperience, or his lack of interest in foreign affairs (he has never even travelled to Europe) and in the Middle East peace process in particular, may result in a reining back of the American bias.

But he and his secretary of state will have little or no time to establish these facts. In order to start with a clean state, Powell should plan to visit the Middle East on a top priority. His presence will be important in signalling the continued engagement of America in the Middle East. He is well known, and well-respected in the Arab world, and will reap healthy political dividends if he can touch base with Arab leaders in the initial stages.

The timing cannot be more opportune. America's credibility as an honest broker in the Middle East peace process is at an all time low in the Islamic world. The wanton killing of more than three hundred Palestinians, and the refusal of America to view this situation objectively, has soiled its image as an effective mediator.

It is ironic that despite the fact that Clinton's personal involvement in the peace process has been greater than perhaps any previous American president, his policy has been a failure.
The new president will need to repair this damage. This would not be an easy task at any time, but will be especially challenging now when violence in the region is raging on a daily basis and opinion is hardening on both sides.

Powell has chosen his words carefully, knowing that the whole world is listening. He is known for his preference for America's sel