Engagement is key to tackling Gulf threats

Any discussion on security of the Gulf region invariably comes around to Iran and Iraq and the threat they pose to the region. This fear is rooted in recent history. Both regional giants have not only fought a bloody war with each other, they have at various times represented a clear and present danger to the Arab states of the Gulf. Iran's initial claims on Bahrain and continuing ones on UAE's islands and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait have only reinforced a feeling of insecurity among the GCC countries.

So it was not surprising that Iran and Iraq figured prominently in a recent conference on regional security issues. Held in Abu Dhabi on March 19-20, during the Idex 2001 exhibition, the conference was titled: 'Countering the threats – The GCC countries and their defence policies'. It was organised by The General Exhibitions Corporation and the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies.

Almost all the speakers at the conference based their presentations on the level of threat emanating from Baghdad and Tehran and ways and means to successfully counter it. Iraq remains concern number one. Despite suffering from a decade of crippling sanctions and regular air strikes by American and British aircraft, Iraq is considered strong enough to destabilise the region. Its powerful military is still intact and since the ouster of UN arms inspectors, no one is sure about the status of its nuclear programme.

Iraq is feared to have chemical and biological weapons and is making serious efforts to acquire nuclear capability. But perhaps the most ominous fact is that it continues to nurse dangerous ambitions. Saddam Hussain's son Uday has been quoted as laying fresh claims on Kuwait, and despite the best efforts of Arab leaders, the Saddam regime has refused to either apologise for its invasion of Kuwait or give iron-clad guarantees that it will not embark on any such misadventure in the future.

Iran's ambitions in the region and its efforts to claim the Gulf as its 'sphere of influence' are also a major cause of tension in the region. The islands' dispute with UAE and Iran's flat refusal to even discuss the issue is a clear manifestation of its attitude when it comes to dealing with Gulf states. The Shah had eyes on Bahrain till the beginning of 1970's but even after the revolution, Iran is said to have engineered internal disturbances in Bahrain which has a large Shiite population.

With Saudi Arabia Iran has had a difficult relationship. The annual Haj pilgrimage has a couple of times seen tension between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi authorities. Only recently have relations improved and high level exchange of visits taken place. But Iran remains a bitter opponent of Western military presence in the region, and a staunch critic of the Middle East peace process. Gulf states therefore have plenty of reasons to be wary of Iraq and Iran when it comes to their security. After two Gulf Wars, GCC countries do not want to take any chances.

The result is a strong military alliance between GCC countries and the United States which has quite willingly become the guarantor of their security. America has followed a dual approach in building this security framework. First is providing its own security umbrella to the Gulf states. This has translated into physical presence of its troops in the region along with the required arms and ammunition. U.S. Naval ships regularly patrol the Gulf and dock at ports of different countries. Rapid deployment of forces is the military doctrine that America is following, with the aim that any aggression could be checked in time.

Second, it has tried to bolster the defences of GCC countries. This has included selling them sophisticated weapons, aircraft and missiles, imparting training to their armed forces, and ensuring greater coordination between the Gulf States. The Peninsula Shield force, based in Saudi Arabia, is an example of these efforts, as is the joint defence pact signed recently between the GCC states.

All this is aimed at deterring Iran and Iraq from harbouring aggressive designs. In essence then, GCC states have become dependent on America and its allies for their security. A balance of terror thus ensues. Deterrence has become the tool for peace and stability in the region. So far it has worked.

But this is not a long-term solution. Ultimately, an enforced peace cannot endure; it must be replaced with an agreed peace. For the Gulf, this means tackling the root cause of tension. If the roots of regional instability lie in Iraq and Iran, then the Gulf states will have to engage these two countries, instead of merely relying on deterring them.

If today Iraq was liberated from sanctions, it would need years, if not decades, to repair the damage it has incurred since its foolish invasion of Kuwait. Whoever is in command in Baghdad in the future will surely be aware of the consequences of a repeat of the misadventure. Iraq needs to rebuild its battered economy and shattered infrastructure. It needs to nurse its impoverished population back to health. In order to do all this, it desperately requires foreign assistance. Much, if not most, of this can come through Gulf states.

Iran too is in a similar situation. With its economy in bad shape and little or no outside assistance coming in as a result of American sanctions, Iran is in need of friends, especially the cash-rich ones. Its leaders know they cannot sustain isolation for much longer, and that only a revived economy can sustain the momentum of the revolution's ideology. Iran has its regional ambitions – which have remained unchanged since the Shah's times – but pragmatism demands that these ambitions, or the desire to dominate the Gulf, will have to be shelved till it can get its house in order. The last thing that Iran therefore needs is a misadventure in the Gulf.

As a speaker at the conference put it, Iran may have the technical capability to initiate aggression, but it does not have the political will to do so. But engaging constructively with Baghdad and Tehran is easier said than done. Iraq presents a serious problem. Although the Arab leaders in the recently concluded summit called for an end to sanctions on Iraq, they could not produce a consensus on a resolution. This is because it has become very difficult to trust Iraq.

No one wants the Iraqi population to suffer more and no one wants Iraq to disintegrate, but no one also wants to live with an Iraq armed with weapons of mass destruction. How to then provide relief to Iraq while ensuring that this relief does not translate into a better armed and more aggressive Iraq? These are difficult issues to reconcile but avoiding them is not the answer.

Iran is a less complex issue, but only slightly so. It is going through internal convulsions which will eventually decide the future direction of the country. However recent years have seen Iran making an effort to mend relations with Gulf states. Revolutionary rhetoric, which compounded insecurity in the Gulf, has softened quite a bit as economic realities have begun to bite. Its leaders, both conservatives and reformists, realise that a confrontationlist approach is not going to pay them much dividends.

An air of pragmatism is now blowing across the Iranian landscape. This makes for a conducive environment for better relations between GCC countries and Ira