Why Novak Djokovic is unlikely to win Grand Slam No. 25

Novak Djokovic is in no hurry to walk into the sunset. But, over the last few Grand Slams, it does look like his body is unwilling to go where his mind keeps taking him. The lure of a record 25th Major is likely to keep the fire burning for a few more Grand Slams, but on current evidence and by his own admission, his days as a contender are numbered.

On Friday against Jannik Sinner, he was never in the fight in his 52nd semi-final appearance. The injury he sustained against Flavio Cobolli at the fag-end of his four-set win in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon obviously hampered his movements and consequently his shot-making, but even he admitted after the loss that the hindrance aside, he was still the underdog going into the match against the Italian world No. 1.

“I’m upset and disappointed, mostly not for the loss, because obviously even if I was fit, I wasn’t a favourite to win against Sinner, I know that, but I think I had good chances if I was fit,” he said, following his 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 defeat.

This is the fifth straight time the 38-year old has lost to his 23-year-old opponent. The worrying part for him is that these losses have come on all surfaces. “It’s just age, the wear and tear of the body,” he said. “As much as I’m taking care of it, the reality hits me right now, last year and a half, like never before, to be honest.

“It’s tough for me to accept that because I feel like when I’m fresh, when I’m fit, I can still play really good tennis. I’ve proven that this year.

“But I guess playing best-of-five, particularly this year, has been a real struggle for me physically. The longer the tournament goes, the worse the condition gets. I reach the final stages, I reached the semis of every Slam this year, but I have to play Sinner or (Carlos) Alcaraz.

“These guys are fit, young, sharp. I feel like I’m going into the match with the tank half empty. It’s just not possible to win a match like that.”

Djokovic, nevertheless, added he was planning to return to Wimbledon next year. “I think, regardless of the fact that I haven’t won a Grand Slam this year, or last year, I still feel like I continue to play my best tennis at Grand Slams,” he said.

“Those are the tournaments that I care about at this stage of my career the most.”

Now the thing is, even world No. 1 Sinner and No. 2 Alcaraz, meeting in their second successive Grand Slam final, will have the same thoughts at this early stage of their careers. The 22-year-old Spaniard already has five Majors while Sinner has three and between them, they have won the last six Grand Slams. And this dominance is what has taken the wind out of Djokovic’s sails, something the Serb realises all too well.

The first time Sinner met Alcaraz at Wimbledon was in 2022, when neither of them had won a Grand Slam. There has been a tectonic shift in these last three years, a change of guard, especially with the retirement of two of the game’s legends – Roger Federer in 2022 and Rafael Nadal in 2024.

But Djokovic has battled on, even joking occasionally, how the young brigade, no matter how good they are, would still have to go through him on every big occasion. He held his ground till 2023, when he won an incredible 3 Grand Slam titles. But even then, the winds of change were being clearly felt.

The Serb has not won another Grand Slam since then, such has been the dominance of the new Big Two. Even his Olympic victory over Alcaraz in 2024 now seems like more of an aberration.

Currently ranked No. 6 in the world, Djokovic is set to lose points having reached the final at Wimbledon last year. And given that he does not play as many tournaments as he used to before, instead focusing on the big ones where he keeps bumping into the young guns at the latter stages, there are clear indications that he is going to meet the likes of a Sinner or an Alcaraz even earlier in the draw if his ranking keeps falling at this rate.

So unless providence intervenes, like if the top two are taken out by other opponents or felled by injury in the earlier stages, it sure looks like the era of the Fab 3 is over for good.