Trouble brewing in Lebanon

Given the heightened tensions in Lebanon, due to the conflict in neighbouring Syria, this week’s bomb blast in Beirut, which wounded dozens, did not come as a surprise. Furthermore, the area that was targeted — a Hezbollah stronghold in the south of the capital — makes the motive clear.

Syrian rebels and their Lebanese allies had previously threatened to attack the Shiite movement in Lebanon in retaliation for its direct military involvement in Syria in support of President Bashar Al Assad. This latest blast occurred just a day after rockets were fired from Syria at the Lebanese city of Hermel, another Hezbollah stronghold. Eastern Lebanon, where the movement dominates, “has seen repeated rocket attacks in recent weeks,” Al Jazeera English reported. Rockets also hit predominantly Shiite southern Beirut in May.

Against this backdrop, this week’s blast in the capital — which the Associated Press described as “a major security breach of a tightly guarded area,” the “worst explosion to hit the area in years,” and “one of the biggest in the area since the end of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in 1990” — was clearly designed to exact a price for Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria, increase dissent within its support base over its backing for Al Assad and hence force its withdrawal.

The site of the explosion is a few hundred metres from where many of the party’s officials reportedly live and work. Furthermore, that the bombing took place near a supermarket and petrol station in a busy part of the city — made even busier because of Ramadan — indicates that the perpetrators were seeking maximum death and destruction.

However, the attack did not have the effect intended. “This is a message, but we will not bow,” municipal official Ziad Waked told Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV. The bombing was condemned across the Lebanese political and societal spectrum because it targeted civilians, coincided with the start of Ramadan, took place near an Islamic centre and could further destabilise the entire country.

It was always going to be highly unlikely that such an attack would force a U-turn from Hezbollah, which has nurtured a reputation for defiance. Not only might the bombing actually stiffen its resolve, but perhaps more damagingly, it may silence growing expressions of dissent from within its support base, and the wider Shiite community, over its stance on Syria.

Just a day before, a group of prominent Shiite figures sent a message to the Arab League condemning Hezbollah’s “divisive” and “direct interference” in Syria. The movement “bears sole responsibility. They don’t in any way represent the Lebanese Shiite community, nor [should] Lebanese Shiites bear the consequences” of Hezbollah’s actions, they wrote.

The day before that, Asharq Al Awsat newspaper reported that a delegation of Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon had called on the party to stop sending fighters to Syria, describing its support of the Al Assad regime as “shameful”.

Last month, former Hezbollah secretary-general, Subhi Al Tufayli, condemned the movement’s intervention in Syria, saying it “has provoked the whole world”. He added that “Hezbollah’s project as a resistance party that works to unify the Islamic world has fallen”. Such criticisms were courageous enough prior to this latest bombing, given the popularity Hezbollah still enjoys among Lebanon’s Shiite community. They may be far more difficult to express now without a backlash.

It is possible that dissenters will highlight the attack as further evidence that Hezbollah must change course on Syria, not least for the wellbeing of Shiite communities in Lebanon and the wider region. However, domestic attacks will be a much more sensitive topic than condemning fighting in another country.

Though the target and motive of the bombing are clear, the same cannot be said of the perpetrators. No group has yet claimed responsibility, although residents in the area reportedly blamed Israel, “and those working to serve Israel’s interests”. Louay Al Mokdad, a spokesman for the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA), denied speculation that Syrian rebels were behind the attack. The FSA “condemns any explosion, whether it’s in Syria or in Lebanon,” he said. This, despite the head of the FSA, Selim Idriss, saying last month: “Hezbollah fighters are invading Syrian territory and when they continue to do that, and the Lebanese authorities don’t take any action to stop them coming to Syria, I think we’re allowed to fight Hezbollah fighters inside [Lebanese] territory.”

Suspicion has also fallen on Syrian rebels’ allies in Lebanon, notably the Salafist Imam Ahmad Al Assir, who has been a vocal critic of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria. In April, he issued a fatwa, saying it is a “religious duty of every Muslim who is able to do so ... to enter into Syria in order to defend its people”. He announced the establishment of “free resistance battalions,” and himself crossed into Syria to engage regime troops and Hezbollah fighters.

His supporters had previously clashed with those of Hezbollah in the Lebanese city of Sidon, after which Al Assir said: “We have a blood score to settle with Hezbollah that can only be settled with blood.”

However, he has been on the run since heavy fighting in Sidon last month between his forces and the Lebanese army, which seized a complex controlled by his loyalists. There has since been an arrest warrant issued against him. As such, it is difficult to gauge whether his fighters are still capable of making good on his threats. They may have been weakened and scattered or simply gone underground.

The perpetrators of this latest bombing may never be known for sure, but regrettably, it will almost certainly not be the last.

Sharif Al Nashashibi is an award-winning journalist and analyst on Arab affairs.