Obama's shot in the dark

The visit of US President Barack Obama to the region is undoubtedly a significant event. There are a lot of expectations in the Arab and Muslim world. People are optimistic that the new American administration will continue to distance itself from its predecessor's policy in the region, helping to bring about much-needed change. The new president certainly wants to change the image of the US, but it remains to be seen whether there will be any actual change in policy.

Obama's message to the Muslim world, to be delivered from Cairo, is meant to clear the air clouded by issues such as the 'war on terror' and American military interventionism. Most likely, the message will be two-fold, reaffirming the US commitment to fight militants and fanatics who 'threaten' American interests and distort the image of Islam. Do you remember how former British prime minister Tony Blair, primary ally of George W. Bush, used to preach to Muslims about their religion?

Though the White House now avoids using the term 'war on terror' in political rhetoric, nothing has changed on the ground. American forces in Iraq are increasingly coming under attack from insurgents and there has been an increase in fatalities recently. Meanwhile, American soldiers in Afghanistan are stepping up their aerial bombardment along the border with Pakistan as well as inside the country. The Pakistani army is itself embroiled in a battle for a tribal area that has become a Taliban stronghold. The Central Intelligence Agency has prepared a report on how Somalia is becoming a new hub for foreign militants, coinciding with the highly publicised arrest of four Americans accused of planning to bomb synagogues and shoot down planes over New York.

These developments, both inside and outside the US, help to maintain the atmosphere of fear used by the previous administration to justify its domestic and foreign policy. They are also a clear reminder to Obama that the threat is real and can't be ignored. If it was, former vice president Dick Cheney's accusation that Obama is jeopardising national security would gain credence.

So, Obama's message to the Muslim world is unlikely to differ substantially - in practical terms - from those heard in the region for the past decade. Only peace in the Middle East would represent genuine progress. But any peace would likely be dictated on Israel's terms, requiring Arab concessions at the outset before any negotiations commence. Some Arab capitals are willing to help persuade the Israelis to negotiate - though all previous concessions and negotiations have been met only with more Israeli stubbornness - in a gesture of goodwill for the new US president.

This is why the itinerary of Obama's visit has been altered to include Riyadh. The 17 hours he previously planned to spend in Cairo will now be divided between the two moderate Arab capitals. Iran and the Middle East peace process will be the focus, and the visit is seen as a push to establish an axis of Arab moderates. It is comparable to a shot in the muscle, rather than an intravenous injection, so the longevity of its effect is questionable. This is due not only to the fact that America is incapable of providing any concrete incentive - it cannot even convince Israel to accept the long-ignored Arab Peace Initiative - but also because of the intrinsic weakness of Arab moderates.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are no longer capable of flexing their muscles and achieving Arab consensus on issues ranging from Iran to Israel. Instability on the periphery, in Sudan and Yemen for example, is negatively affecting the clout of the moderate camp. For this reason, Obama's shot in the arm is unlikely to give the moderate powers the strength they need to get the region - and possibly the Muslim world - to fall in line behind the US.

Though Arabs seem to have no clear alternative to following American or Israeli road maps, navigating them will not be easy. Israel's right-wing government is making things more difficult, as it shifts the focus to Iran and its offshoots in the region. With no practical steps being taken to stop Israeli aggression in Palestine, it is unlikely that progress will be made.

- Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.