The great irony of Trump’s Iran war: Fighting to restore what existed before conflict

Dubai: Six months ago, the Strait of Hormuz was open, oil and gas flowed through one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and Iran did not control which ships could pass or demand tolls for their transit.

Today, after nearly six months of war, restoring something close to that pre-war reality is emerging as one of Washington’s most pressing goals.

It is perhaps the great irony of Donald Trump’s Iran war.

As CNN noted, the administration’s list of war goals has repeatedly shifted, often depending on which official was speaking.

The conflict began with extraordinarily ambitious objectives. Trump spoke of Iran’s complete surrender. His administration raised the prospect of regime change, vowed that Tehran would never possess a nuclear weapon and repeatedly talked about dismantling its military capabilities and support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah.

But as the war has dragged on, that list has steadily shortened.

Now Vice-President JD Vance has offered perhaps the clearest indication yet of how far Washington’s immediate ambitions have shifted.

Asked on Fox News on Thursday how the war could end, Vance identified just two goals.

“It’s ensuring that the Gulf countries continue to send oil and gas to the world economy so that we have energy price stability,” he said.

“That’s goal number one: Keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country.”

Only then did he identify the second objective: Ensuring that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.

How Trump’s Iran war goals shrank

• MARCH: A sweeping wish list

• The administration repeatedly cited as many as four goals, although the list changed depending on who was speaking. They included preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, ending support for proxy groups, destroying missile infrastructure and crippling Iran’s air or naval power.

• MAY: Nuclear weapons above everything

• Asked whether Americans’ financial situation was influencing his efforts to end the war, Trump was emphatic: “Not even a little bit.” He said the only thing that mattered was ensuring Iran could not have a nuclear weapon.

• JUNE: The demands narrow

• The memorandum of understanding with Tehran left out several objectives that Washington had previously portrayed as central to the war. Questions remained over Iran’s ballistic missiles and uranium enrichment.

• JULY: Trump declares progress

• Trump increasingly suggested that Iran’s nuclear programme had already been devastated, including declaring Iran “denuclearized” and saying its highly enriched uranium was buried and inaccessible.

• AUGUST: Cheap oil becomes ‘goal number one’

• Vice President JD Vance offered a dramatically shorter list: “That’s goal number one: Keep oil and gas cheap for Americans all over our country.”

• Then came goal two: “Ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.”

• THE IRONY

• Keeping energy flowing through Hormuz amounts in large part to restoring the pre-war status quo. The strait was open before the fighting began.

• Six months after Washington went to war with much broader ambitions, one of its most urgent objectives is getting back something it already had.

From surrender to energy prices

The ordering was striking.

Preventing a nuclear-armed Iran had long been presented as Washington’s overriding objective. Keeping American petrol prices down barely figured in the administration’s early descriptions of what victory would look like.

Indeed, Trump explicitly dismissed that consideration in May. Asked whether Americans’ financial situation influenced his attempts to resolve the conflict, he replied: “Not even a little bit.”

On Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt sought to play down any suggestion that priorities had changed, saying both objectives were “equally as important to the president”.

Trump also said Friday that he would “never apologize” for Americans paying somewhat more for fuel because of what he regards as the larger stakes in Iran.

But Vance’s formulation is difficult to separate from what has happened in the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war began on February 28, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG exports passed through the waterway. Iran effectively closed the strait after US and Israeli attacks, throttling traffic and repeatedly sending energy prices higher.

Washington is therefore confronting an uncomfortable reality: One of the outcomes it now badly wants is something it possessed before firing began.

An open Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has gained new leverage

And restoring that status quo is proving anything but simple.

Iran insists it now decides when Hormuz opens and who passes through it.

“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,” Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said on Saturday.

“This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command.”

Tehran has also demanded an end to sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, compensation for wartime damage and an end to attacks against Iran and its regional allies before the waterway fully reopens.

Iran wants a role in controlling the strait and charging vessels for passage — powers it did not exercise before the war and which Washington strongly opposes.

The risks are no longer theoretical.

The UAE said on Saturday that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were engaged in “acts of piracy” after attacks on vessels linked to state-owned oil giant ADNOC.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Houthi allies have declared a maritime blockade of Saudi ports in the Red Sea, putting pressure on another crucial route for Gulf energy exports.

-- With AFP inputs