Last chance to avert a wider Iran war? Mecca pact nations in Tehran to push for US-Iran deal

Dubai: Can a military alliance formed to defend its members against attack now help prevent another devastating war in the Middle East?

That question has taken on new urgency as senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey gathered in Tehran on Monday to push for an agreement between Iran and the United States, amid growing fears of renewed military confrontation.

The diplomatic initiative comes at a critical moment. American forces are reportedly prepared for major strikes against Iran, Israel has sharpened its warnings, and attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants have drawn Saudi Arabia deeper into the regional conflict.

Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were expected to meet Iran’s senior security officials and negotiators, according to AP.

The discussions also cover the escalating conflict in Yemen and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.

But can the three countries use their combined diplomatic influence to persuade Tehran and Washington to step back from another confrontation?

Why is the Mecca pact involved?

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement brings Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey together in a collective security arrangement intended to strengthen cooperation against external threats.

The three countries are now using diplomatic engagement to address a conflict that threatens regional stability and their own security interests.

Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly said the Tehran visit was intended to support de-escalation, dialogue and diplomatic solutions, complementing mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the discussions would address the most pressing threats to regional security, although he indicated that the meeting’s agenda had not been finalised.

The initiative is particularly significant because Saudi Arabia is pursuing talks with Tehran while confronting repeated attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis.

The urgency of the initiative was underscored by fresh explosions in Riyadh overnight and warnings of a hostile aerial threat, as the Houthis claimed another attack on the Saudi capital’s international airport.

Saudi security analyst Hesham Alghannam warned that the Tehran meeting could represent a final opportunity to prevent the crisis from spiralling into a wider conflict.

Andreas Krieg of MENA analytica described Prince Khalid bin Salman’s visit as a significant diplomatic signal, saying Riyadh was seeking to influence events rather than wait for another escalation, AFP reported.

The talks involve senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and security chief Mohsen Rezaei, according to Saudi officials.

What leverage do the three countries have?

Each country brings different diplomatic relationships and strategic interests to the negotiations.

Pakistan has played an important intermediary role between Washington and Tehran throughout the conflict. Munir has maintained direct contact with Iranian leaders, giving Islamabad an established channel for conveying proposals.

Saudi Arabia has a direct interest in preventing further escalation, particularly as Houthi missile and drone attacks threaten its cities, airports and energy infrastructure.

Turkey brings its regional diplomatic relationships and security influence as a Nato member.

Together, the three countries could help communicate security concerns, encourage restraint and support proposals acceptable to both sides.

However, their combined influence does not guarantee a breakthrough. Any settlement ultimately requires agreement between Washington and Tehran.

What does Iran want?

The biggest obstacle remains the gap between Tehran’s demands and Washington’s conditions for ending the conflict.

Iran has indicated that diplomatic channels remain open, with messages still being exchanged with the United States through intermediaries.

But Baghaei accused Washington of persisting with unilateral demands, criticising what he described as repeated American calls for Iran’s complete surrender.

The Strait of Hormuz remains another major sticking point.

Pakistan and Qatar helped broker a June agreement intended to reopen the strategic waterway, end the American blockade of Iranian ports and begin negotiations on a broader settlement addressing Iran’s nuclear programme.

The arrangement quickly unravelled as hostilities resumed.

Any fresh agreement would therefore have to address not only the nuclear dispute but also sanctions, shipping security and the risk of renewed attacks.

Why is Yemen complicating the talks?

The war in Yemen has become an increasingly dangerous extension of the wider confrontation.

Houthi militants have intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Saudi-backed government forces and the rebels continue fighting across Yemen.

On Monday, the Houthis claimed ballistic missile attacks against Saudi-backed forces in Aden and Lahj provinces. AP said it could not independently verify the claims.

The Saudi-led coalition separately reported destroying five tunnels used to store ballistic missiles, four launchers and another missile storage facility in Houthi-controlled territory.

The escalating violence adds urgency to the Tehran talks, where Yemen and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are among the issues being discussed.

For Riyadh, reducing the threat from Yemen is closely linked to preventing a wider regional war.

Can diplomacy prevent another war?

The Tehran meeting is part of a broader diplomatic effort rather than an isolated initiative.

Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday, working in coordination with Washington to ease tensions, according to AP.

The renewed diplomatic push comes as Israel prepares for elections on October 27 and the United States approaches its November 3 midterm elections.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran or its allies could attempt attacks, while Tehran insists it will defend itself against any military action.

Despite the heightened tensions, neither side has publicly ruled out diplomacy.

The challenge for the Mecca pact countries is to translate dialogue into concrete concessions on security, sanctions and the nuclear dispute.

Their involvement could help widen diplomatic engagement and address regional concerns that extend beyond Washington and Tehran.

But the outcome remains uncertain.

For now, the significance of the Tehran talks lies in a striking contrast: Three countries linked by a collective defence pact are turning to diplomacy in an effort to prevent another war that could engulf the wider Middle East.