Difficult to predict outcome of polls

Russia goes to the polls on December 7 to elect its 4th Lower House of Parliament, known as the State Duma, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This election is widely seen as a further expression of the Russian march towards democracy which began in December, 1993, when a referendum was held on Russia's post-Soviet constitution and thereafter a republic was born.

Modern constitutional developments in Russia began as a result of the first revolution of 1905, when Tsar Nicolas II was forced to grant a Constitution and establish a Duma. It continued to function at the whim of the Tsar, who dissolved it in March, 1917. Although a parliament, it had no legislative-making powers.

Duma today

Its reactivation today has become part and parcel of Russia's bicameral Federal Assembly that has two chambers, the Federation Council and State Duma, the latter a 450-member Lower House elected every four years through a dual electoral system of proportional representation or whoever gets the most votes through the first-past-the-post system. Half of the members of the Duma are elected through proportional representation.

This Lower House is part of a semi-presidential system of government that exists in Russia today, based on the separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches. Its relationship with the executive is a bit of a tug of war process. It can, for instance, propose some legislation, but this has to be ratified by the executive which includes the Prime Minister and President.

However, the Prime Minister and Cabinet are nominated by the President which must be ratified by Parliament. Subsequently, the Duma has the authority to institute a no-confidence vote against the government but can only recommend dismissal to the President.

If three no-confidence votes are passed within a three-month period then the president has the option of either dismissing the government and appointing an interim prime minister or calling for fresh Duma elections.

But it is argued the Duma is the weaker party in the current political system with the executive having the upper hand. However, Alexei Makarkin of the Centre of Political Technologies in Moscow rejects this view as simplistic.

While the Duma has so far proven loyal to the Kremlin, it is not under the government's control, and this is because of the power of legislation it has and the fact that it substantially amends draft laws it receives from the executive, he adds.

Many parties

Despite the fact that Russia has been under a communist system with a one-party rule for some 74 years, parties proliferated in the 1990s, giving the impression of a diverse political culture in the country despite the dominance of the Communist Party.

After the 1993 elections, the expressing of views by leftists, nationalists, communists, ultra-nationalists, conservatives and liberals both in parliament and outside became commonplace. Now, the Communist Party is only one part of a political system dominated by the proliferation of many other parties.

In 1995, a total of 16 political parties stood for the parliamentary elections that included communists, ultra-nationalists and conservatives. Only five of these made it to parliament, with the Communist Party getting the most votes, about 22 per cent, having doubled this from around 10 per cent in the 1993 parliamentary elections.

Also, after the 1995 elections, over 100 independents made it to parliament, standing from single-district constituencies. This was a move favoured by the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin who argued independent deputies would weaken the role of political parties and strengthen the government hand.

But the reverse was true in the 1995-1999 parliamentary session that turned into a raucous affair with the communists demonstrating a strong voice in parliament and power struggles continuing between the legislative and executive branches of government. The Duma blocked most Kremlin-initiated initiatives, for instance, due to communist deputies.

Other parties that stood for the 1995 elections included the Women of Russia Party, Congress of Russian Communities to the Trade Unions and Industrialists of Russia Party which failed to get even five per cent of the total votes to gain a seat in the Duma.

Despite their failings, the appetite of political parties gained strength in the 1999 elections as 24 of these stood for parliament. However, only six of them managed to get into the Duma. These were the Communist Party; Unity, which became United Russia in 2001; Union of Rightist Forces (URF); Fatherland-All Russia; Yabloko; and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), which is ultra-nationalist.

The Communist Party won 114 seats on the day of the elections, but it was the government that came out as the winner this time round through pro-government parties like Unity and the others which could be relied on to support the executive branch when needed. These include the LDPR which usually votes for the government.

The present

The present 2003 Duma elections come under President Vladimir Putin who was elected to office in the year 2000. About 31 parties registered with the Russian Central Electoral Commission, suggesting the political appetite of Russians had not dampened, wavering between mysticism as in the case of the Unity Conceptual Party to the bizarre as once reported by the Economist.

Despite this, however, political analysts such as Alexander Braterski forecast only five parties will make it to the next Duma - the small Yabloko liberal party, the Communist Party, LDPR, the URF and the Fatherland bloc.

The National Public Opinion Research Centre in Moscow in another poll in October suggested that the pro-government United Russia will come on top with 20 per cent of the votes, the Communist Party 18 per cent, LDPR 7 per cent, and smaller parties 2 per cent.

Russia's election campaign started in early September. It is reported to be a tough one with all sorts of "dirty-tricks" campaigning being used. Despite predictions, no one can say for sure which parties will dominate the next Duma.

Seat of power

The Duma and its significance
* The Duma, the Russian parliament, was first set up in 1905 and continued until 1917 when it was dissolved.
* After 1993, political parties came to dominate the Russian political scene although their presence in the Duma was checked by the fact that they needed to get 5 per cent of the votes.
* The Communist Party continued to command the majority of the votes. In 1995, it received 22 per cent of the votes, and in the 1999 elections it won 114 seats.
* Candidates from 31 parties are standing for this year's Duma elections.