Why Midterms matter far beyond America

‘Midterms’ may lack the pomp of a presidential race, but the world will be watching closely when Americans go to the polls on November 3. We have already seen the campaigning turning up a notch in the USA with President Donald Trump hosting a series of rallies, despite his name not being on any of the ballots.

While Trump will remain in the White House for the next two years, whatever may happen next month, he needs his party to win big to keep momentum behind his agenda. That matters greatly as it is possible to argue that the world hasn’t seen this much tension and rapid change since the 1940s. As one of the two major world powers, America (and Trump) is at the centre of it all, which means what happens when people vote across states from New York to Louisiana will impact us all.

Every seat in the US House of Representatives is up for grabs, along with roughly a third of the Senate and dozens of state governorships. The outcome will decide who controls Congress for the next two years, and with it, who writes America’s budgets, shapes its trade rules, approves its treaties and funds its commitments abroad.

The theory is that a president proposes, Congress disposes. This is supposed to be the balance of American politics. If the Republicans lose control, Trump will face more challenges at home, and that will have a knock-on effect internationally.

Consider the economy. The United States remains the world’s largest, and the dollar remains the currency in which much of global trade is settled, including the energy markets that link the Gulf to every continent.

Decisions in Washington on tariffs, interest-rate pressures, fiscal spending and regulation ripple outward within days. Investors in Dubai, manufacturers in Shenzhen and farmers in Brazil will all be watching the results with the same close attention as voters in Ohio or Arizona.

Consider, too, technology. AI, semiconductors and data infrastructure are now matters of strategic importance, and Congress plays a decisive role in setting the rules for export, investment and cooperation. For nations building partnerships in these fields, the composition of the next Congress will help determine the pace and shape of what comes next.

Then there is diplomacy. From humanitarian aid to regional security, from climate finance to global health, much of what America does abroad depends on legislative support at home. Allies and partners plan years ahead. Everyone values predictability during a very unsettled time.
Here, the UAE offers a useful perspective on what stability can do. Over decades, this country has built a relationship with the United States grounded in mutual respect and long-term thinking, one that has endured across administrations of both parties. That steadiness has allowed cooperation in trade, investment, education, defence and innovation to deepen regardless of who holds power in Washington.

 
None of this means the world should try to influence America’s choices. That decision belongs, rightly, to American voters. But it does mean the rest of us have every reason to understand what is at stake and to follow the conversation with interest rather than cynicism.

When the counting is done, the world’s work will carry on, but it may change the focus and speed of certain projects. We will be covering the developments as they happen over the coming weeks while explaining what it means for those living here in the UAE.

The midterms may lack pomp, but they won't lack drama.