US politics at crossroads

Our federal lawmakers have managed to unite Americans on an important issue: Democrats, Republicans, and independents disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. In all three groups, according to Gallup, approval of the institution falls below 20 per cent.

Split-party control is one reason. Democrats dislike the GOP majority in the House, Republicans dislike the Democratic majority in the Senate, and independents dislike the fighting between the two chambers.

The current levels of disapproval are more than a matter of mere partisanship, however. Because of a weak economy and a mounting national debt, Americans are unhappy with the way the federal government is working.

A majority of respondents told NBC pollsters that, if it were possible, they would vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including their own representative. Surveys also show that most Americans don't think that President Obama deserves reelection.

So will voters sweep everybody out next year?

Although it's theoretically possible that the electorate could turn against incumbents of both parties, such a result would be unprecedented in the modern era.

When large numbers of lawmakers go down, the bulk of the losses come from one party or the other. It's even harder to picture a situation where voters would oust both Obama and the Republican majority in Congress. Other election scenarios are more plausible.

The Truman scenario: The first is the Truman 1948 scenario. That is, a feisty president rallies support, wins an upset victory, and restores his party to power on Capitol Hill. But as political scientist Brendan Nyhan has pointed out, it's a myth that Harry S. Truman won because of his style. He won because the economy was doing well for most of 1948, and Democrats had a big lead in party identification. Neither of those conditions seems likely for 2012.

The status quo: The second is the status quo scenario. Voters retain both the incumbent president and the current House majority. In light of voter dissatisfaction, this outcome may seem far-fetched. But remember that in the past four presidential reelections under divided government — 1956, 1972, 1984, and 1996 — voters indeed kept the opposition party in control of the House.

The 2012 election is taking place under very different circumstances. Still, one could picture Obama edging out a GOP nominee weakened by gaffes or scandals — and the people keeping the House Republicans in power as a check on the White House.

The party sweep: The third and simplest is the party sweep scenario. Voters kick out the president and his congressional party. If the economy remains weak and if the Republicans nominate an acceptable presidential candidate, this scenario is the likeliest.

It's possible that we could have a new Republican president coming in with clear majorities in both the House and Senate — something that hasn't happened since 1928.

The good news for Republicans is that they would have total control. The bad news is that they would have total responsibility. They would be facing enormous fiscal challenges and a sceptical public. They would thus have to produce big deficit reduction and economic growth at the same time.

Maybe they'd be lucky and global economic conditions would enable them to make progress on both fronts. But it seems more realistic to expect that they would fall short and face a new wave of voter anger in the 2014 midterm.

Could this wrath disrupt the party system?

Most Americans already dislike both major parties and think that a third party is necessary. It would be difficult to translate this sentiment into political change. New parties face tough barriers, including state laws that hinder their access to the ballot and campaign finance rules that put them at a fundraising disadvantage.

Yet "difficult" does not mean "impossible". If Republicans and Democrats continue to underperform, the hunger for another option may grow. If we have learned one thing during the economic crisis, it's that nothing is permanent.

John J. Pitney Jr is the Roy P. Crocker professor of government at Claremont McKenna College. He is coauthor of American Government and Politics: Deliberation, Democracy, and Citizenship.