Israel-Iran tussle in North Africa destabilising

Media reports are linking Iranian warships docking on Sudanese coast on the Red Sea with the bombing of an arms and ammunition factory near the Sudanese capital Khartoum. Though the vessels left its naval bases in Iran a month ago, media campaign is strengthening the hypothesis that that the bombed Sudanese factory was run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, producing sophisticated arms to be smuggled to Palestinian fighter groups in Gaza Strip. The Iran link to the doomed Sudanese factory started from Israeli sources and was picked by international media, as the Khartoum government accused Israel of bombing the factory in a raid involving at least four Israeli fighters. No official comment from Israel, but Israeli media continue to carry leaks and military-intelligence analysis about the raid.

That is not the first time that Israel has neither denied nor confirmed bombing Sudanese targets. Earlier this year, and in April last year, cars in north-eastern Sudan were apparently bombed in air raids as well as in 2009 when a couple of people were killed when their pick-up vehicle was bombed from air. Media coverage used to explain Israeli raids as targeting arms smugglers to Gaza via eastern Egypt and Sinai Peninsula. Arms were said to be coming from war-torn Libya and sometimes Iranian backing of militant groups in Gaza was mentioned. But this time, the focus was Iran, said to be running a factory in Sudan for that purpose. Though Sudanese government denies an Iranian connection, nobody is expected to believe the Khartoum regime.

Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir has got very few friends. Even after the rise of political Islam in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco and Libya, post-uprisings in the last couple of years, Khartoum is still isolated. The International Criminal Court is seeking the arrest of Al Bashir and some of his officials on accusations of war crimes in Darfur. South Sudan’s secession added another country at odds with Khartoum — besides Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda and Chad.

Most Arab countries are not welcoming Al Bashir for fear of angering the West, especially the Americans. No wonder then that the Khartoum regime has become closer to Iran regionally and China internationally. As Sudan became an alternative refuge for Osama Bin Laden’s lieutenants in the mid-’90s, when they left Afghanistan, it is now being seen as a far arm of Iran and its militant satellite groups in the region. That is the common western-Israeli view shared by many Arabs as well.

Yet, the Israeli violation of the airspace of a sovereign state is nothing less than outright aggression and an act of war. It is only tolerated and accepted in the context of international hypocrisy that justifies Israeli occupation and aggression as a pre-emptive defence of the Jewish state against its enemies.

It was not the first time that Israeli fighters violated an Arab country’s airspace to bomb or attack in any way. Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Tunisia, Iraq and Egypt have faced this before, but now it is a bit different. Recently, Israelis have every now and then been pursuing so-called terrorists in Egypt’s Sinai — said to be in coordination with the Egyptians. The Red Sea and Indian Ocean — facing Yemen — is a scene of Israeli military activity via its military facilities provided by Ethiopia and Eritrea. The whole Arabian Peninsula is actually encapsulated by military presence — Anglo-American from the East in addition to the Israelis from the West and south-west.

The most important aspect of all these Israeli activities is checking the so-called Arab Spring. The changes in North Africa and possibly soon in Syria and even Jordan are bringing “moderate” Islamists to power. The apparent approach by Israel is to forge an alliance with political Islam (mainly the Muslim Brotherhood and its sister groups) against another perceived danger: Terrorism and Iran. That explains the change of tone and political course of Hamas in Gaza, now detaching itself from Iran and even Lebanese Hezbollah.

Conflict in Syria is the microcosm for this polarisation. The anticipated Sunni-Shiite conflict is being geared up to cement these emerging alliances and now Turkey finds itself in a very awkward position. It has to choose whether to join the Israeli-Brotherhood axis or keep its thinly-threaded relation with Iran and Iraq. Ankara’s position will be pivotal by the clear demarcation of lines in the upcoming conflict.

A protracted low-intensity conflict in the Levant (Syria, Lebanon and Iraq) with another in the Horn of Africa is destined to keep the whole region weak and tormented for years to come. Attacking Iran or containing it then will be a very easy task, with the backing of “moderate” political Islam and “moderate” Arabs so far.

Dr Ayman Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.