Gold: What price level should UAE, Gulf investors look at for entry?

Dubai: Looking to invest in gold – but unsure of when to enter?

If gold drops back to $3,250 an ounce levels, that’s seen by many UAE and regional investors to build up their positions, according to trends seen on trading platforms.

Bullion is currently at $3,336 an ounce. (The Dubai gold rate is currently Dh371.75 a gram, and it’s been above the Dh370 a gram mark since the start of the month.)  

The hopes that gold prices will cool off after the Israel-Iran ceasefire did not come true. After an initial drop, gold prices surged back to over $3,300 plus - and coming days might not offer any respite either.

Next week will see the July 9 deadline set by US President Trump for import tariff deals to be agreed by leading trade partners. Any delays there could lead to a resurgence in gold volatility - and mostly on the higher side.

Does waiting for price dip make sense?

“Many (investors) are waiting for dips rather than entering aggressively at the top of the range,” said a senior analyst at IG.

“This supports our earlier thesis: 2025 may be defined by tactical accumulation (on the part of investors) within the $3,100-$3,500 band (and then) waiting for decisive breakout.”

That’s the key thing. Most analysts and investors believe that gold’s more than likely to head higher in the coming months – and even into 2026. The only question is, by how much will gold likely go up by?  

Gold going all the way to $4000?

“JPMorgan sees a 20% rally to $4,000,” said the analyst at IG. The US bank ‘expects gold to thrive amid stagflation, geopolitical risk, and de-dollarization. JPMorgan estimates 2,800 tonnes of global demand from central banks, retail, and institutions equal bullishness (in gold).”

Now, if an investor agrees with gold going higher forecast, entering when prices are ‘still’ in the $3,200-$3,300 range would make sense.

“As of today, the trend for gold continues to point upward. Most investors are either holding their existing positions or waiting on the side-lines, with 72% of our gold traders still holding onto their ‘buy’ trades.

"New market entries appear a bit more cautious, but the overall sentiment remains unchanged.

"(Rest of) 2025 may be shaped by tactical accumulation of gold, within the $3,100–$3,500 range, with investors prioritizing well-timed entries over reactive trades."

Piling into gold

It's becoming more and more clear that it would take something dramatic to get gold prices off the perch they are on now. Which is why more investors might prefer getting into it now rather than have to do it when prices are again pushing higher.

"Gold doesn’t offer interest, but in a world where politics and policy collide with capital flows, it offers something far more valuable: autonomy," said Stephen Innes, Managing Partner at SPI Asset Management, in a recent note.

"This isn’t a hedge. It’s a pivot. And it’s happening in real time..."

Is Citi's gold price drop forecast unlikely?

Recently, the US mega-bank Citi forecast gold prices would actually drop - and even go down to under $3,000 an ounce next year.

"Wall Street is sharply divided: Citigroup warns of a 25% drop to $2,500, while JPMorgan thinks it would rise to $4,000," said the analyst at IG.

"This reflects a deep rift on global demand dynamics, China’s institutional pivot, and the future of monetary power."