Tracing evolution of climate change theories over time

The theories around climate change have evolved significantly over the centuries. It started with people in some regions debating if cutting down forests would affect the rainfall and noticing the importance of the Earth’s natural resources.

By the late 19th century, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius theorised that burning fossil fuels could enhance the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, leading to global warming and harming the planet. His calculations on the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels were remarkably close to modern estimates.

Scientists John Tyndall and Eunice Newton Foote used Arrhenius’ work to demonstrate CO2 and water vapour-trapped heat, suggesting that an atmosphere could do the same.

In 1824, French physicist Joseph Fourier stated that the Earth would be far cooler without an atmosphere. This idea was developed by Irish physicist John Tyndall in 1861. Tyndall identified that water vapour and certain gases trapped heat in the atmosphere.

By the mid-20th century, scientists including Charles David Keeling began systematic measurements of atmospheric CO2 and detecting its rising levels.

Early Warnings

The grave concerns about scientific opinion around climate change began in the 1950s due to two key experiments. The first, led by Roger Revella in 1957 showed that the ocean would not absorb all the CO2 released in industrial fuel emissions and its levels in the atmosphere would rise significantly. The second was a study by Charles Keeling three years later, providing concrete evidence of the rise in CO2 levels in the air.

The alarms around the impact of human activities were raised and towards the end of the 1980s, the scientific community finally acknowledged it as a ‘problem’ that needed immediate attention.

James Hansen, one of the most influential climate scientists of the era, warned that the world was heading towards a superheated climate not witnessed in a million years. He alerted that the record heatwaves riling the US, Europe, and other parts indicated that global warming experts had not communicated its ills properly.

Time for Action

Finally, the international community recognised the need for collective action to combat climate change. At the 1988 Toronto Conference of the Changing Atmosphere, scientists and politicians converged to address environmental degradation as a global threat to the Earth.

The Kyoto Protocol 1997 was the first major international treaty to reduce GHGs. With 192 nations, it operationalised the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) by legally binding developed countries to emission reduction targets.

In 2009, at COP15, major economies deliberated explicit emission pledges. The accord saw the adoption of a new set of international goals. However, put together in haste by a small group, it left most countries on the political sidelines.

Later, the Paris Agreement of 2015 became a landmark achievement in the global fight against climate change, as 197 countries consented to limit global warming to below 2°C or preferably 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels.

It was more progressive than the Kyoto Protocol, which only required mitigation action by a limited number of industrial country emitters responsible for the bulk of historical emissions. Besides, in the Paris Agreement, all countries pledged emissions reduction, even though most did not contribute to climate change.

It introduced a model of voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by governments, outlining the countries’ climate actions and targets.

The 2021 Glasgow Pact emphasised the need for more ambitious action. It included commitments to reduce the use of fossil fuels, stop deforestation, cut down methane emissions, and follow carbon-binding standards.

In 2022, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) was agreed upon by 196 governments, who committed to address the ongoing loss of terrestrial and marine biodiversity.

The Drawbacks

However, the flamboyant language of the all-important Paris Agreement was sans clear actionable commitments. In addition to not including the words ‘pledge’ or ‘commitment’, it had no clue how the target would be achieved.

Though nations announced intentions, they failed to delineate comprehensive implementation plans. Laws mandating net-zero emissions were enacted without specifying the execution strategy.

The emission reduction targets set by countries were not legally binding, which meant having no enforcement mechanism to ensure countries would meet their NDC goals. The NDCs were lackadaisical to meet the 1.5°C target, which meant that even if all pledges were met, global temperatures would still rise by about 2.4°C.

The Agreement relied on countries to self-report their progress, which lacked transparency and accountability.

Another crucial aspect was the willingness of the developed nations to achieve a collective goal of mobilising $100 billion annually by 2020 and lasting through 2025 for climate action in developing countries.

During the subsequent COP meetings, the large gap between ‘saying and doing’ on the financial front drew a wedge between the rich and the poor nations. The disbursement of the funds has been slow and insufficient. Hence, the path to net zero remains murky.

Scope For Improvement

The NDC Synthesis Report by the UNFCCC, published in 2023, provides a comprehensive overview of the current state. The report synthesises information from 168 NDCs, representing 195 parties to the Paris Agreement.

The key findings include:

Ambition: Many countries have set more ambitious targets, even though the overall level falls short to meet the 1.5°C target.

Sectorial Focus: There is a growing emphasis on sectors including energy, transportation, and agriculture, which are critical for achieving emission reductions.

Adaptation Measures: Countries are increasingly including adaptation measures to build resilience against the impacts of climate change.

The March Forward

To effectively combat climate change, countries must increase their emission reduction targets. This requires political will and international cooperation. Establishing robust mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, and verifying progress is crucial. This includes independent assessments and greater transparency while divulging details.

Developed countries must fulfil their financial commitments to support climate action in developing countries. This includes meeting the $100 billion annual target and ensuring that funds are disbursed and utilised effectively.

Another high point is investment in research and development of clean technologies, including energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage facilities.

By enhancing ambitions, strengthening accountability, providing financial support, fostering technological innovation, raising awareness, engaging the public, and encouraging sustainable practices at the individual and community levels, we can still pave the way for a sustainable and resilient future.

(In the next article, the author will discuss Climate Governance)

Dr Abdullah Belhaif Al Nuaimi is Chairman of the Advisory Council of the Emirate of Sharjah