India’s earliest monsoon in 16 years boosts crop outlook, raises hopes for export easing

Dubai: The southwest monsoon made landfall in Kerala on May 24 — a full eight days ahead of schedule — marking its earliest onset in India since 2009, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The early arrival has injected optimism into India’s agricultural sector, buoying hopes for a strong crop season and the potential lifting of curbs on farm exports.

The monsoon’s advance comes after above-normal pre-monsoon showers and is expected to accelerate agricultural activity across key farming states.

This year’s early onset is only the second time in over a decade the rains have reached the mainland before June 1.

The IMD has also forecast above-average rainfall for the June–September season, a critical period that waters more than half of India’s farmland.

“Monsoon onset took place on 24th May, much ahead of the normal date of June 1. This is one of the earliest onsets in recent years,” said Neetha K Gopal, a scientist at IMD told Bloomberg news.

The 2025 onset is only a day behind the May 23 arrival seen in 2009.

With rains already advancing through parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and the northeastern states, sowing activities could begin at least a week earlier than usual.

“The early onset means early sowing, possibly starting early June, and this leads to a timely harvest. It’s a big advantage,” Ashwini Bansod, VP, commodities research at PhillipCapital India, told Bloomberg.

A boost for economy and food security

The monsoon’s timely arrival could improve output of key crops such as rice, cotton, and soybeans, replenish reservoir levels, and stabilize food prices that had surged to over 10% last October. April’s food inflation has since eased to below 2 per cent, partly due to better crop cycles and moderated demand.

Given the erratic weather of previous years that forced India to curb exports of rice, wheat, and sugar, a strong monsoon may prompt New Delhi to ease restrictions, especially as it has already lifted curbs on some rice varieties.

India is the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar, and its farm economy supports hundreds of millions.

Severe waterlogging was reported in several parts of Delhi after heavy rains and thunderstorm struck the national capital in the early hours of Sunday. Areas affected include Moti Bagh, Minto Road, and near Delhi Airport Terminal 1.

Visuals from Delhi’s Minto Road show a car submerged due to severe waterlogging caused by the heavy rainfall.

The heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms also lashed several parts of Haryana’s Jhajjar.

The IMD credits advancements like the Monsoon Mission and High Performance Computing for improved forecasting, enabling better preparation among farmers, fisherfolk, and livestock rearers.

These tools have enhanced resilience against extreme weather and helped optimize planting strategies.

As the monsoon spreads further inland in the coming days, its timely and powerful start offers a rare alignment of favourable conditions for India’s rural economy, weather resilience, and food supply chain — a much-needed reprieve after years of uncertainty.