Sunday Comment: Will speaker be from opposition?

Who gets to be the speaker of Pakistan's new National Assembly?

That was the question at the centre of intense speculation last night, hours after the newly-elected members of the assembly took oath of office in a revived parliament more than three years after a bloodless military coup.

Names such as Liaquat Baloch from Jamaat-e-Islami, Aitzaz Ahsan of the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarians, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed and Chaudhry Ameer Hussain of Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam, were leading the list of possible contenders after the house adjourned to meet after the weekend.

The candidates had till this afternoon to formally file their nominations.

Analysts from the main political parties were quick to warn that the slot for the speaker could well be up for grabs, depending on the outcome of negotiations which were expected through last night.

The newly elected members were expected to resume negotiations after yesterday's 'Iftar'– the first such opportunity for all to break bread together after taking oath.

"There are many different possibilities, no options are closed and none are indefinitely open" was how a senior PML-QA leader chose to describe the emerging situation, clearly outlining the many pitfalls.

"In the end, there are no definites in this situation" he said, without elaborating exactly who could emerge as the lead contenders.

Privately, others belonging to PML-QA warned that there was still no clear consensus on a single candidate as negotiations to form a new ruling alliance were still continuing.

Opposition politicians were quick to note that negotiations by today could at least throw up a consensus opposition candidate for the speaker who may well have the backing of a cross section of groups. However, much depends on the way that the vote is conducted.

"If it's a secret ballot then the chances of electing anyone from the opposition are going to be bright," said an opposition leader. "A secret ballot allows for any candidate to receive votes including votes from those who may not vote for the opposition" he said.

Western diplomats in Islamabad said the opposition's success in getting its candidate elected as the next speaker would be a huge morale booster for anti-government parties at a time when the opposition claims that General Musharraf is seeking to distort parliamentary democracy.

"Even if the prime minister's slot goes to a pro- government candidate, an independently inclined speaker with support from the opposition would not only be a clear symbolic victory," said one diplomat.

"It would also demonstrate that members of the new parliament could turn against Musharraf, if not in public then at least in private" he added.