Why Elena Rybakina’s rise to the top is not a surprise

It was inevitable but it came with a few hiccups on the way. For Elena Rybakina to reach the summit of women’s tennis, she just needed to believe.

Talent was never a problem for this gifted Russian-born Kazakh. She possesses a potent serve and pummeling groundstrokes off either flank to match. The 2022 Wimbledon title was not a surprise for those who have followed her career trajectory. What was surprising was her lack of Grand Slam titles thereafter till she won her second at this year’s Australian open.

The 2023 season saw her reach the Australian Open final and win two WTA 1000 titles. She ended the year ranked No 3 and one expected her to launch her assault at the No 1 ranking. Instead, the 27-year-old was dogged by illness almost throughout the 2024 season.

So, it wasn’t until last season that her ascent truly began. She won Ningbo in October, then closed the year by defeating Aryna Sabalenka in the WTA Finals Riyadh championship match.

And then 2026 happened.

In January, she came back from 3-0 down in the deciding set to beat Sabalenka again and win the Australian Open.

It gave her the much-needed belief that she could go for much bigger glory than she had achieved in her 12-year professional career, not that they were any less glorious.

She added Stuttgart in April. In Toronto, the matches began to accumulate – four of them went to three sets, and she spent nearly 11½ hours on court before Iga Swiatek beat her in the final.

“I was playing really well, I can say, in Toronto and even Cincinnati,” Rybakina said. “In Toronto it was a lot of three-set matches, which also I think was tough. But at the same time, it built the confidence that you can win these difficult matches.”

At the close of 2025, the gap looked daunting: Sabalenka sat at 9,870 points, Rybakina at 4,350. Nine months later, it had shrunk to 414 – and, for the first time, Rybakina had placed the No 1 ranking entirely within her control.

She had put herself in position, but as Rybakina sees it, the ranking follows the work.

“The No 1 ranking is, of course, one of the goals,” she said. “But I think the main focus for me, for the team, is to win the titles, and then the ranking will follow up. We go match by match, but obviously, we want to win the titles, the tournaments. So that, I would say, is the main goal.”

On Wednesday at the US Open quarter-finals against Qinwen Zheng, Rybakina lost the first set. But as has been the case many a time this year, the ‘Ice Queen’ remained unflappable and turned the tide eventually and celebrated her ascent to No 1 with just a mild clenching of her fist.

Her semi-final opponent will be Coco Gauff with the whole Flushing Meadows crowd behind the American. The duo is tied 1-1, with Rybakina winning their latest encounter earlier this season in Toronto.

While the satisfaction of reaching the top of women’s tennis will be great, Rybakina knows that opportunities to win Grand Slam titles can be few and far between. She will be especially grateful to have put herself so close to another major after a heel injury forced her out of the Cincinnati tournament last month.

Her performance so far at this year’s final Grand Slam has been mixed, with periods of sustained brilliance marked by dip in performance. But no matter what happens in her semi-final match, Rybakina will have transitioned next week from just Ice Queen to the Queen of Tennis.