Questions remain on agricultural recovery

Signs of the early arrival of monsoon in parts of Pakistan this year may have had devastating effects on parts of the country, such as the southern coastal city of Karachi, where more than 200 people died this week due to rain related calamity.

But the rainfall for now may well be hailed by the country's farmers who depend on crops such as rice plantations and needed additional water supply to reach a high yield.

For the moment, in spite of the human calamity, the Pakistani government is well-positioned to forecast a recovery in the agricultural economy whose growth is expected to surge this year.

Despite such optimism though, there are no indications of one successful crop or the other, essentially setting the pace for a turnaround for Pakistan's agricultural outlook.

Agriculture remains central to the prospects for Pakistan's economy as more than half the country's population of at least 165 million, relies directly or indirectly on farm incomes. Around a quarter of Pakistan's annual gross domestic product comes from agricultural incomes.

For other players in the economy such as the industrial sector, Pakistan's agriculture remains central to their fortunes. The outlook for large industrial sectors such as textiles remains closely tied to the prices of cotton.

In spite of such compelling realities, there are few signs of a sustained and long-term turnaround.

Some of the unresolved issues faced by Pakistani farmers are part of what is endemic to the country. Cases of corruption permeate deep into the countryside where challenges range from adulterated pesticides and fertilisers to the breakdown of law and order.

These problems undermine not only Pakistan's ability to sustain its economic recovery, but also challenge the effort by the country's farming community to increase their yields, go in to new areas of improved production and ultimately see the arrival of greater prosperity.

It's clear that factors which are central to Pakistan's weather conditions are not significant enough to fill the gaps, notwithstanding their ability to possibly have an impact upon lifting the immediate prospects for agriculture.

In addition to overcoming a range of vital challenges which are central to Pakistan's agricultural outlook, the country needs to overcome two related issues which stand right at the heart of the future of farm incomes.

On the one hand, reforming the country's irrigation system is perhaps among the most pressing challenges. Successive Pakistani regimes have simply overlooked that need.

On the other hand, dealing with the gaps surrounding Pakistan's power generation and transmission systems has never been an equally profound challenge for the agricultural sector.

Significant losses during the transmission of electricity through the state-owned Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) have only forced the company over time to raise its power tariff.

This in turn hits all consumers but most notably raises costs for electricity usage by farmers who depend on heavy power motors to run their tubewells.

The failure to reform the irrigation system has forced Pakistani farmers to turn towards the use of tubewells which are either run on increasingly expensive diesel, thanks to the rising oil prices, or seek more electricity.

In a nutshell, this week's calamity which hit Pakistan's coastline may be seen as tagged with a silver lining on issues related to agricultural yields. But the window of opportunity presented by the early arrival of rainfall cannot be ignored.

The writer is a journalist based in Pakistan.