Future of coffee: How provenance, storytelling are redefining value

Dubai: Just a few weeks ago, a farm in Panama sold a kilogram of Geisha coffee for over $30,000. Alongside the unique flavour profile, it was branding that commanded the premium, with high-end coffee shops from around the world specifically bidding to secure the highly sought-after Hacienda La Esmeralda coffee. This signals a deeper shift in the global coffee trade that will define the decade ahead.

The global coffee industry – valued at over $200 billion and supporting 25 million farmers – is undergoing a transformation as profound as it is overdue. With climate instability upending supply chains, younger consumers reshaping demand and producing nations fighting to retain more value, the very architecture of global coffee trade is being redefined.

Our latest coffee-focused Future of Trade report maps this evolution in sharp detail. At its core is one big idea: the value of coffee is no longer just extracted at the point of export or consumption, but created at the source.

 Crumbling model

For decades, coffee was traded like oil – anonymous, commoditised and price-driven. But this model is crumbling. In its place, a new value chain is emerging – one shaped by rich storytelling, direct-to-consumer platforms and significant brand equity built at the farm level.

We are now seeing a shift similar to the centuries-old wine industry. Just as top vineyards command premiums based on terroir, heritage and story, so too are the most forward-looking coffee growers, crafting identities that elevate them beyond commodity pricing.

Platforms like Panama’s Hacienda La Esmeralda and Lamastus Family Estates are leading the charge, hosting global auctions for their specialty beans and leveraging digital tools to connect with high-end buyers. These growers are not just selling coffee, they are selling reputation.

The commercial aspect of the reputation building is just one side of the coin. Consumers are demanding the full story to confirm that their purchases are doing good. They want to know the name of the farm, the method of processing, the sustainability credentials and whether the farmer was paid fairly.

In turn, this is pushing brands to differentiate on values. It is creating market space for provenance, ethics and transparency – the new indicators of quality in the eyes of today’s coffee drinker.

Day-to-day effects

We see the implications of this shift every day. Our Coffee Centre processed more than 7,400 metric tonnes of coffee in 2024 alone. Much of it came from smallholder farmers or cooperatives who are increasingly seeking direct market access and better price realisation.

Our view is that they need a model that prioritises flexibility and access. That is why we have focused on end-to-end service delivery on a pay-as-you-go basis, enabling even the smallest producers to participate in global trade on fairer terms.

But access is not enough. What producers increasingly need is visibility. Initiatives like the Farmers Pavilion at World of Coffee 2024 and the inaugural Dubai Coffee Auction provided smallholders a direct channel to premium markets. These events are critical mechanisms for visibility, empowerment and brand creation.

And as these models scale, the economic benefits ripple outward. Strengthened farm incomes drive stronger rural economies – particularly in historically underrepresented regions – and help secure long-term investment where it is most needed.

Dubai best placed

Dubai is uniquely positioned to lead this shift. Strategically located between producing and consuming markets – with robust logistics, deep trade ties across Africa, Latin America and Asia, and a booming specialty scene of its own – the emirate is becoming the logical centre of gravity for global coffee flows.

And with hundreds of member companies now operating in our coffee ecosystem – spanning producers, exporters, roasters and equipment suppliers – DMCC has built the infrastructure to match the new direction of the industry.

The message from our Future of Trade report is clear: the coffee industry must move past the commodity mindset if it wants to thrive. Climate change, price volatility and shifting consumer values are all converging to make the old model unviable.

But there is opportunity in this disruption. With traceability comes trust. With transparency comes equity. And with story comes value.

By embracing these principles – and giving farming communities the tools and platforms to do so – we can build a coffee trade that is more resilient and more rewarding for all who participate in it.

The world wants better coffee, and this will be driven by better coffee economics.

- The writer is Director of DMCC Coffee Centre and a seasoned coffee expert