Kerala: With Swaraj confirmed as CPM candidate, Nilambur gets a 'proper' election

So, it’s going to be a proper tussle between LDF and UDF after all in Nilambur, the Kerala constituency where a by-poll will be held on June 19.

For a moment it felt as if the CPM-led LDF was going to put up a ‘token’ candidate an election that will now be the quarterfinal contest between the two blocs ahead of the Kerala Assembly elections of May 2026.

Thankfully, better sense seems to have prevailed and makes for what will be an intriguing contest.

M. Swaraj – still, one of the brightest stars in CPM – will have a chance to find out whether his electoral fortunes are better after a shock defeat last time out in Thripunithara. Swaraj has his diehard fans as well as detractors, and Swaraj has not helped matters with his quite trenchant use of words over the years. (Even one-time CPM supremo and former CM V.S. Achutanandan was not spared…)

Will Swaraj’s entry make it difficult for Aryadan Shoukath’s chances as the Congress choice for an election that is just months away from the big one in 2026? Shoukath – who’s CV includes credits as a producer of art films – too is hoping for a comeback after an election defeat and time in the political wilderness.

After all, this is a by-election that only came about because P.V. Anwar, who resigned as Nilambur’s representative after a spectacular falling out with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

But the stakes have gotten bigger from the moment Swaraj was confirmed rather than some CPM party faithful with limited state-wide visibility and zero charisma. Swaraj has got both, but the question is whether he is too much of an outsider to make a decisive return to form in Nilambur?

Brand 'Aryadan'

A win for Shoukath will mean ‘Brand Aryadan’ is back in business. His father, the late Aryadan Muhammed, was a beloved leader during Congress’ glory days in Kerala. Muhammad was always quick with a repartee delivered in a deadpan tone, and which always carried a sting. But it was never done in ways to hurt, but more about setting the facts right. Aryadan Muhammad was Nilambur’s very own leader - and it was always a wonder why Shoukath could not make the cut as his successor.

Will the poll of June 19 then be when legacies are reshaped and the ‘Aryadan’ banner is again unfurled in the Kerala Assembly?

Will P.V. Anwar remain relevant?

But as with every election in Kerala, it’s never a straight contest between any two or more candidates.

In Nilambur, the undercurrent comes in the shape of P.V. Anwar, who insists on being the next kingmaker in Kerala politics. The CPM and LDF have had enough of him, but Anwar has not lost any time in trying to be a nuisance in the UDF camp. (Check out the fixed smile that V.D. Satheesan, Leader of the Opposition, puts on whenever confronted with the ‘Anwar question’…)

The BJP has not put up any candidate – for now – and that’s a good thing. Because the Nilambur by-election then becomes one of two politicians – Shoukath and Swaraj – trying to regain influence.

And another politician – Anwar – trying every move not to lose out his swag in Kerala politics – through talk rather than anything else.

So, who’s going to win June 19?