India-Pakistan escalation: What we know so far and what’s next?

Dubai: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday night vowed to respond to India’s airstrikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, carried out early Wednesday under Operation Sindoor.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that Islamabad intends to target only military installations in India, not civilian infrastructure.

The tone from Islamabad suggests a measured response, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“Largely on the basis of what we’ve seen in previous times, these are two rational actors who don’t want a broader war. Both have something to lose if there is a broader conflict,” she told CNN.

Fears of escalation grow

India’s strikes extended beyond the Kashmir region, hitting areas deep inside Pakistani territory. The operation drew comparisons to the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, which followed a deadly suicide bombing on Indian forces.

Experts told DW (Deutsche Welle) that the scale and intensity of the latest strikes surpass those of 2019. Pakistan labelled the attack an “act of war” and promised retaliation.

Both sides have since exchanged heavy artillery fire, raising fears of a wider conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Lt Gen D.S. Hooda, a former Indian army commander, said Pakistan would “quite likely” retaliate.

“But this would have been factored into the Indian government’s planning. Managing escalation will now be the next challenge. I do not think either country wants a full-blown conflict,” he told DW.

India claims civilian casualties

India’s Ministry of Defence said 16 civilians were killed in Pakistani fire since early Wednesday, including three women and five children.

Pakistan air defence systems targeted, India says

India confirmed it targeted Pakistani air defence systems on Thursday morning. This is the first time New Delhi has publicly acknowledged striking Pakistani military installations in the current conflict.

India said its strikes came after Pakistan attempted to attack Indian military positions in northern and western regions using drones and missiles.

Pakistan says it shot down Indian jets and drones

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister claimed that Chinese-made aircraft were used to down five Indian fighter jets the previous day. India has not responded to these claims or confirmed any losses.

Separately, Pakistan’s military said it shot down 25 Indian loitering munition drones across its territory and recovered debris of Israeli-made Harop drones.

Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said 12 Harop drones were downed between Wednesday night and Thursday.

China and UN call for restraint

China, Pakistan’s top arms supplier, expressed concern over India’s military action and urged both sides to de-escalate.

According to SIPRI, 81 per cent of Pakistan’s weapons imports in the past five years have come from China.

UN General Assembly President Philemon Yang also voiced concern: “I call for both sides to exercise maximum restraint and for an immediate de-escalation... The conflict should be resolved through dialogue and diplomatic solutions,” he said.

A UN team visited a strike site in Pakistan-administered Kashmir to assess the damage. India maintains that it targeted only terror infrastructure, not civilian or religious sites.

Flight disruptions and civilian impact

The escalating conflict has triggered major flight disruptions. Pakistan initially closed its airspace after the strikes, later reopening it. However, airlines continued to suspend routes for safety.

Pakistan International Airlines asked passengers to cooperate, citing the sensitivity of the situation.

Indian and international carriers also reported delays and diversions, as many avoided flying over Pakistan.

What next?

Ajay Bisaria, former Indian envoy to Pakistan, said India’s actions are designed to establish deterrence.

“Targeting known terrorist hubs, but accompanied by a strong de-escalatory message... The challenge would be to manage the next level of escalation. This is where crisis diplomacy will matter.”

A senior Indian defence official told DW that the strikes were calibrated to avoid full-scale war.

“We believe these strikes have established deterrence after the Pahalgam terror strike. This should send the right signals across the border.”

As both nations weigh their next steps, global powers continue to watch closely, urging diplomacy to avoid a catastrophic escalation.