Why India will lose the Lord’s Test

Dubai: The third Test between India and England at Lord’s is balanced on a knife edge, but momentum has firmly shifted in the hosts’ favour after a pulsating fourth day. Set a target of 193, India finished at 58 for 4, still needing 135 runs with Rishabh Pant holding the key to what now appears an unlikely win.

India have won just three of their previous 19 Tests at Lord’s, and history, pitch conditions, and tactical missteps all suggest that a fourth may be out of reach.

With only 17.4 overs bowled in India’s second innings so far, the ball remains relatively new. That spells danger for the batters, as the Dukes ball is expected to move around for at least 15 more overs before it softens. And given the venom England’s bowlers have extracted from this surface — particularly Brydon Carse and Ben Stokes — India will have to negotiate a fiery spell first thing on the final morning.

Much will depend on Pant, whose fearless strokeplay has previously won India famous victories under pressure, most memorably in Brisbane. But this Lord’s surface, combined with England’s relentless aggression and the increasingly fragile Indian top-order, will make his task a monumental one.

Earlier, Indian captain Shubman Gill, already in the record books for surpassing Rahul Dravid’s 23-year-old record of most runs by an Indian in a Test series in England, failed when it mattered most. Gill was undone by a Carse delivery that jagged back in and pinned him in front for 6, following a fruitless review. That dismissal left India at 53 for 3 before Akash Deep, sent as a nightwatchman, was bowled by Stokes with the final ball of the day.

A decision that could prove costly

It has highlighted the cost of India’s decision to play an extra bowler in place of a specialist batter — a gamble that looks increasingly costly given the early exits of Yashasvi Jaiswal and Gill.

The absence of batting depth also raises questions about the lower order’s ability to chase in tricky conditions. While Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, and Washington Sundar are capable with the bat, Lord’s in its current state demands far more technique and composure than they may be able to provide under sustained pressure.

Ironically, it was Sundar who helped keep India in the hunt with the ball earlier in the day. His 4-22 — including the prized scalps of Joe Root, Jamie Smith and Stokes — brought England’s second innings to a close for 192. “Winning as a team at Lord’s would be very special, amazing,” Sundar said after play. “It’s Test cricket, no matter the situation we always expect 100 per cent every single day ... It’s going to be exciting tomorrow.”

Aggressive send-off

Exciting, yes — but also boiling over. Tempers flared throughout the day, with Zak Crawley’s time-wasting antics late on Saturday prompting a foul-mouthed retort from Gill, while Mohammed Siraj’s send-off of Ben Duckett on Sunday ended in the pair brushing shoulders.

“There was an incident ... it came out last evening, and again today,” Sundar acknowledged. “This is sport, everyone is quite aggressive and quite intense in their own way.”

England’s assistant coach Marcus Trescothick agreed. “It’s understandable that at times it gets to boiling point … It helps the atmosphere in the series.”

But Trescothick made it clear what England plan to do on the final morning: “It will revolve around the first hour tomorrow ... Hopefully, we will get six wickets in the first hour.”

If they do, it will be game, set, and match — and India will be left reflecting not just on their batting collapse, but a strategic blunder that may well have cost them the series lead.