Obama's 57-state solution

Since moving into the White House in January, President Barack Obama has sent signal after signal that his attention - contrary to what many people believed - was on Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and not the troubled Middle East.

Obama has realised that a solution to the complicated web of Middle East politics cannot be achieved unless peace is made between the Arab states and Israel. That became all the more difficult after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to power, showing little desire for peace with the Palestinians and Syrians.

There is nothing creative that Obama can do for the Middle East. Every imaginable idea in the world has been tried, debated and foiled, starting with the Partition Plan of 1947, running through the Bernadotte Plan, leading up to the Fahd Plan, and more recently, the Abdullah Plan, which is now known as the Arab Peace Initiative.

Why would Obama ruin his record - which to date includes nothing but success - with a failed case such as the Middle East if he cannot succeed where every single one of his predecessors since Harry Truman has failed?

Surprisingly, however, Obama has now come up with the '57-state solution', leaked to the world by King Abdullah of Jordan. The idea builds upon the Arab Initiative, which calls for collective peace between the 22 member states of the Arab League, and Israel. The new plan calls for peace between Israel and 57 Muslim states, not just the members of the Arab League.

Peace would mean the return of the Golan Heights to Syria and the Sheba'a Farms to Lebanon, along with a state for the Palestinians and a freeze on all Israeli colonies. The future of Occupied Jerusalem will be discussed at a later date. Speaking to The Times of London, and then again at the World Economic Forum in Jordan last Friday, King Abdullah said: "The Arab peace initiative has offered Israel a place in the neighbourhood and more - acceptance by 57 nations, the one-third of the UN members that do not recognise Israel. This is true security - security that barriers and armed forces cannot bring".

He added, "The future is not the Jordan river or the Golan Heights or the Sinai, the future is Morocco in the Atlantic and Indonesia in the Pacific. That is the prize."

Many in the Arab world are doubtful that the 57-state solution will bear fruit. Obama however, has surely tested the waters with most of the 57-states involved - members of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference - who are due to meet in Syria on May 23, before discussing his plan with King Abdullah. Obama himself is due to give a speech in Cairo next month, where he will also speak about his new peace initiative.

Observers are worried about the right of return for Palestinian refugees, which at this stage, remains fuzzy in the Obama plan, fearing that the US president will eventually call for their repatriation in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon - something that is refused by all three countries, and by the Palestinians themselves. When campaigning for president, Obama had bluntly said that he objects to the right of return for the Palestinians, "I've also repeatedly made clear that I am committed to ensuring that Israel remains a Jewish state and that is why I have pledged my personal leadership in a process to establish a two-state solution."

Let us ask another question: What is in it for Israel? Does Benjamin Netanyahu really care for full normalisation with Chad, Guinea, Senegal, Bangladesh, Gabon, Gambia or the Comoros? Even if the 57 states collectively agree to what Obama has proposed, the real trick is getting Israel to accept, which will be difficult under Netanyahu.

What's happening now brings to mind an initiative put forth 27 years ago by Ronald Reagan. He spoke of autonomy for the Palestinians, "the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and their just requirements", but made no mention of the refugees and postponed the future of Occupied Jerusalem. The Palestinians rejected the plan, and so did then Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin, who called it, "national suicide for Israel".

This is a crisis that has overshadowed every US president since Truman. Nothing has been achieved - apart from the limited successes of Oslo, which were diminished by Sharon in 2000. Is Obama serious? Or is he simply adding his signature to another US scheme that will not achieve its desired goals - much like the Eisenhower Doctrine, the Nixon Doctrine, the Carter Doctrine and the Reagan Plan?

When I was a student of Middle East studies, we studied these doctrines during our sophomore year, and they were reduced to short-answer questions on university exams, worth five points each. They failed at changing the miserable situation in the Middle East.

I fear that a new generation of Middle East students will soon deal with yet another five-point short-answer question on the Obama Plan, or the 57-state solution.

Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.

I think Obama stands head and shoulders above any previous American president except for Jimmy Carter in his vision for the Middle East. Sami Moubayed's attempt to trivialise Obama plays into the hands of the pro-Israel Lobby and its neoconservative base that is fundamentally Islamophobic. Criticism and trivialisation of Obama in Muslim lands is simply counterproductive and potentially self-destructive. In his very first meeting with the right-wing premiere of Israel, Obama compelled Netanyahu to announce his immediate acceptance of peace negotiations. Changes on the ground will soon follow in the form of reduced restrictions and the elimination of check points. That is a beginning. While Israel's demands are still absurd, it is time for the Palestinians to unite in a peaceful front of opposition to Israeli intransigence. I believe firing pitiful missiles at Sderot is a waste of time. It is time to fold the missile attacks and face the challenge of diplomacy to reveal Israel's hostility to Obama's vision for peace that will precipitate the collapse of the right-wing government of Netanyahu and the rise of a less hostile alternative.
Michael Carmichael
Chapel Hill,USA
Posted: May 19, 2009, 17:35