Predicting the next colour

Joining the luminaries of the forecasting world - environmentalists, economists, scientists and tech wizards - is a not-so-new new breed, the fashion influencers. Though they have been around for a long time, and are not to be confused with fashion designers, this band of people is today at the forefront of what you and me pick off a shelf as we trawl through a mall.

See that stunning red shirt in a window display paired with a big stone pendant? Glued to the spot by a classic black skirt worn with an asymmetrical mesh top with leather trim? It's the fashion forecasters at work grabbing eyeballs. In a world where fashion trends enjoy an attention span that is giddily fast-paced, fashion forecasters stay ahead by getting to the point faster than the rest - and wait for us to catch up with their tastes. Fashion forecasting relies on its energy and focus to bridge the gap between what is an ambiguous sign of fashion to come and what eventually becomes a visible, successful fashion trend.

What is fashion forceasting?

According to Rajeev Negi, retail manager, United Colours of Benetton and Sisley, UAE, "Fashion forecasting is an activity in which fashion analysts study past buying patterns and look for signs for current market dynamics to project them into the future. This fascinating field combines creativity, research and consumer behaviour. Trend forecast agencies located in Italy, New York and Paris collect facts pertaining to consumer buying patterns, activities and occasions for which clothes are needed, their priorities, reading habits and so on. This is done through liaison with clothing brands, retailers, wholesalers and fashion professionals, newsletters, books, magazines and fashion websites."

Interestingly, fashion forecasters keep their focus on changes in music, art, architecture, film, literature, interiors and photography too, he says. They track new talent and innovations in science, technology and the media. Forecasters gather and analyse repetitive looks, styles and manufacturing techniques found all over the world. "When they spot a trend, they also figure out when it will end."

How do buyers choose clothes?

According to Negi, "Buyers do a lot of research by walking down the street, window shopping and observing the dress sense of people from all walks of life and in all age groups. They look for clues as to why fashion is expressed the way it is. So when a collection is presented for buying purposes, the buying team selects clothes keeping in mind the psychological, sociological and commercial point of view as well as the cultural sensitivities in mind.

"When selecting clothes for women of different age groups, buyers need to be very careful as the look is not limited to the colour and design alone."

Colleen Sherin, fashion director, SAKS Fifth Avenue, UAE, agrees, "As such it is up to the buyers to decide what will and will not sell well in the UAE, or infact in any market around the world. Our buyers must always have a good knowledge of the target consumer. Cultural trends and tastes, price points and regional media play a role in making the decision on a wise purchase for the UAE, which is a melting pot of different nationalities and cultures.

"It is a global hub, and therefore one cannot stereotype the consumer. All purchases are carefully thought out to a specific target consumer. At SAKS, we strive to deliver what the customer wants to wear; what modern women can feel comfortable in while still being trendy. We love the idea of interpreting runway trends at various price points, making fashion approachable and accessible."

This summer, she says, "The major differentiation is in selecting clothing that complements each age group's lifestyle. A woman in her twenties entering the work force will have different lifestyle needs than a woman in her forties who's married and has children. This summer ushers in a lot of statement jewellery in colours as varied as amber, coral and clear.

"In footwear, sandal booties will be ‘in' and shorts will be a wardrobe staple. You will also get to see recurring boyfriend blazers, pastel colours, military influences in prints and silhouette and the long-strap versatile handbag."

Sherin adds, "Do not forget the belief that fashion is a cycle. Each season, trends from previous decades make their way back on the runways, generally in an updated version either through cuts or fabrics."

Charlotte Ghosn, buyer, Galeries Lafayette, Dubai, says, "In buying, we must always think about what people will want to wear next year. There is no crystal ball, you have to feel the pulse and hope you get the trend right. What is important is the deep understanding of customers and being in tune with them. As a result, we travel across the world, see what brands have to offer, watch out for trend-setters and closely monitor them. We support all of that with some research done by trend forecasters."

"The process," she says, "typically begins about 18 months in advance for designers. At Galeries Lafayette we buy stuff at least a year ahead of time. Although most trends are set in Paris, New York and Milan, lately, we have seen an influence coming from South East Asia. The styling bureaus research the latest innovations and materials and try to incorporate that into whatever social trends are developing in order to predict future trends. Those trends are usually represented in the major designers' fashion shows. However, there are always a few designers that develop their own vision and this is what makes fashion special and forecasting a challenging task."

The timing of the fashion in stores is a crucial element of this forecasting. "Clothes for the next season land about two months earlier at the warehouses. So ideally, you will see a winter collection offered in July and summer collection in December. However, most American designers typically have monthly collections so that customers can find new styles year-round," Ghosn says.

Liza Gallant, head-visual merchandising, Forever 21, UAE, agrees with that: "One of our core brand philosophies is to get styles on to the shop floor every day, so that our customers have access to the latest trends immediately instead of having to wait for weeks."

Interestingly, there is a notion among the public that each store and brand has its own version of fashion cuts, textures, styles and colours. Is this a myth? Or is there a common thread that ties different brands and trends together? Says Gallant, "To some extent, this is true. Key fashion elements are consistent between brands but each brand interprets the current fashion or trends to reflect their own internal vision, creating unique pieces that help differentiate them from each other."

Louise Murphy, senior merchandiser ladies wear, Marks & Spencer Gulf, says, "It is partly true that each store or brand has its own version of fashion cuts, textures, styles and colours. A brand that targets highly fashion-conscious women who almost always follow the latest trends is likely to focus on smaller sizes and use cuts that place creating form above providing comfort. They may also, for example, more regularly use materials that are more expensive and may not be machine-washable. On the other hand, for high-street brands, the aspects of wear, comfort and care must be given greater consideration."

Is it necessary to follow trends?

According to Ghosn, "Today's woman likes to represent her personality in her clothing. It is more about how she feels than how old she is. A woman will only look good if she is in sync with her personality. No piece of clothing will compensate for that. However, since trends take into account the moods of society, they tend to be an excellent tool to express oneself."

Negi agrees and says, "Women have different body types, hence it is imperative for them to know what suits them and what does not rather than blindly following fashion trends. This is why fashion-conscious women should remember that being stylish has nothing to do with their size. It is about making the most of the body's shape. Also, looking good isn't about spending a lot of money. It is about style which never goes out of fashion.

"Remember, you cannot acquire style through expensive clothing alone. A woman should know what cuts and colours work best for her. Besides, while it is better to not ignore current fashion trends, make sure that your wardrobe is full of must-haves, which can be easily mixed and matched with other clothes."

Says Murphy, "At M and S, we believe that it is not necessary to follow trends. Indeed, it could be argued that without trends, uniformity would be prevalent and those who are not a ‘regular' size or shape would have less opportunity to dress in a way they find comfortable. Trends will exist as long as people wish to express themselves and enjoy finding new ways to dress."

Do celebrity endorsments dictate fashion trends?

Yes and no. According to Ghosn, "Celebrities are among the first to wear styles that designers have already created for the following season, a process that starts more than a year ahead. They are great accelerators of getting those pieces to the main consumers. A celebrity can even help an unknown brand become famous overnight. This is the reason why today brands increasingly seek the endorsement of a famous actress, singer or an athlete as opposed to top models."

Murphy says. "Undoubtedly, celebrities affect fashion trends, whether by wearing items at an award ceremony or through an endorsement in an advertisement. Think of Liz Hurley in ‘those' shoes; the character of Carrie Bradshaw in Sex and the City series and films; McLaren Formula One drivers Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button in the latest UK advertisements for Marks and Spencer. These people are admired by many and their look is part of what people appreciate - this can be confirmed by turning to the ‘get their look' pages in any women's lifestyle magazine."

"Apart from them," says Gallant, "bloggers are the newest style icons. This fashion aspect has emerged as the newest and strongest influence and the epitome of the new mix philosophy. Fashion, therefore, comes from the reality on the street, not from the runways of the world."

The same is true for movies in which fashion trends get dictated much in advance. "In films," says Murphy, "fashion forecasters play a part in deciding the wardrobe for characters in order to avoid the film looking dated when it is released. The other two possibilities are to dress characters conservatively (not usually possible for all characters in a film - and it runs the risk of making the movie dull visually) or to go the other way and dress characters in extreme or flamboyant outfits (this can create fashion trends in itself but will only look ‘correct' if it is in keeping with the character)."

What the experts suggest?

Ghosn: "Find a good style in the upcoming trends that matches your personality. Do not overdo it. Either subtle clothing with bulky accessories, or eye-catching apparel with delicate accessories work best. Most importantly, be yourself."

Gallant: "Fashion today is so much more free than in the past. A ‘no rules' philosophy has changed how stylish a woman dresses up. Personal style has brought us a new dress code, which combines pieces from the past, different brands and designers, vintage, all in a single look."

Styles for summer 2010

• Denim shorts A summer staple. You can make your own cut-offs using your old, faded jeans.
   
• Maxi dresses Causal and comfortable, they suit any age group and transition well from day to night.
   
• White It is the colour for spring/summer 2010 from tops to dresses.
   
• Hot, neon colours Be it nail polish, accessories or tanks, go neon to match the hot temperatures.
   
• Nautical stripes American style with a French twist, a touch of red elevates this basic look.
   
• Neutrals and off-white Spring tones that have been carried forward. Neutral shoes are a wardrobe must-have and a great way to lengthen your legs.
   
• Khaki This summer choose from an array of shorts or capris. They are easy to wear and to put together as an ensemble.
   
• Gold jewellery Go for gold as it complements tanned skin and works on most skin tones.
   
• Deconstructed or asymmetric styles Another catwalk feature this season. It is on jackets, shorts and even a few blouses.
   
• Light fabrics The way to go this summer. Keep cool with cotton blends and linens to take the edge off the heat.