Cautious optimism frames lifting of Iranian sanctions

DUBAI: Traders working along the Dubai Creek, a popular spot for Iranian spices, are watching with cautious optimism this weekend whether international sanctions, led by the United States and Europe, against Iran, will be lifted.

As early as this weekend, Tehran is expected to meet its obligations under the July 2015 Vienna agreement with the US and other world powers to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanction relief. If Iran does fulfil its requirements then the international community is to immediately lift the near decade of punitive sanctions.

“Business will go up for sure, there will be more business opportunities,” said Amir Sabzevari, an Iranian accountant at Abbasi Gardean General Trading, a small store selling Iranian products near the Spice Souq at Dubai Creek.

Sabzevari, the only openly optimistic Iranian who Gulf News spoke to, said it will be easier to import and re-export Iranian goods when sanctions are lifted.

But Sabzevari admits any benefits “will take time” to realise and will require an unimpeded Iranian banking sector, allowed to issue business loans to Iranians overseas.

An Iranian manager at a nearby store also selling Iranian products is less optimistic. “They have been telling me for six months the sanctions will go. If they are lifted in one, two days, then let’s see,” the Iranian manager told Gulf News, asking that his name not be printed out of fear of upsetting authorities in Tehran.

“If the banking restrictions go then it will be good,” he said, while also lamenting the sanctions-hit Iranian economy that has seen the Iranian rial slide against the US-pegged UAE dirham.

Just five years ago, 10,616 Iranian rials bought 1 US dollar, according to the Central Intelligence Agency factbook. On Thursday, 30,175 rials was buying 1 US dollar, according to currency exchange website xe.com.

A supplier delivering Iranian goods to the store, who also asked that his name not be printed, shared the Iranian manager’s sparse optimism. “Okay, maybe they lift these sanctions but then maybe they will add others,” he said.

The Iranians working along the Dubai Creek are part of a century-old trade between Dubai and Iran that has survived years of sanctions. Despite the cautious optimism among those Gulf News spoke to, many are expected to benefit from an open, restriction-free Iranian economy. But it is unclear how soon they will see an improvement.

Alp Eke, Senior Economist at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, told Gulf News by phone that the “potential is there” for Iran but that it lacks the modern technology, infrastructure and procedures to instantly bounce back into the world economy.

“The facilities are outdated, it will need quite a bit of infrastructure investment, it needs quite a bit of expert labour, which should be imported,” he said of Iran.

Others loading nearby dhows, the large wooden ships along Dubai Creek that carry goods to and from Iran, don’t believe there will be an immediate change once sanctions go.

Mohammad Ali, an Iranian loading boxes of textiles onto a dhow which was set to later sail to Iran, said business is already good and doesn’t expect much to change. Khalid Purwais, a Pakistani national mulling over invoices as others load another dhow with boxes, agreed.

— With inputs from Arshad Ali, Photographer