UAE set for coldest winter stretch from January 10 to 22

Dubai: The middle third of January is expected to be the coldest period of the winter season across the Gulf region, according to Ibrahim Al Jarwan, Chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society and member of the Arab Union for Astronomy and Space Sciences.

In a statement issued this week, Al Jarwan said the dip in temperatures coincides with a traditional weather phase known in Gulf folklore as “Der Al Sittin”, literally “the sixty days”, a period famed for its biting cold, often described in local proverbs as sharp as a "knife's edge."

During this time, Al Khaleej newspaper reported, early mornings are forecast to bring bone-chilling cold, particularly in desert areas where temperatures could plunge below 5°C. “The period from January 10 to 22 generally marks the lowest temperatures of the season across the region,” Al Jarwan noted.

The cold snap aligns with the evening culmination of the Thuraya (Pleiades) constellation, a celestial event long associated with harsh winter chills in Arab heritage.

Al Jarwan also pointed out that the first full moon of 2026, commonly referred to as the "Wolf Moon," coincided with the Moon reaching its perigee, the closest point to Earth in its orbit, making it appear unusually large, a so-called “supermoon”.

The name “Wolf Moon” derives from agricultural folklore in North America and parts of Western Europe, linked to the haunting howls of wolves during periods of winter scarcity. “Other folkloric names include the ‘Harvest Moon’ and the ‘Hunter’s Moon’,” he added.

As for precipitation, Al Jarwan said January rainfall in the UAE typically ranges between 12 to 18 millimetres, with an average of six to eight rainy days.

Al Jarwan cautioned, however, that long‑range weather forecasts remain inherently uncertain. “Reliable weather predictions can generally be made only up to about five days ahead,” he said. “At present, there are no indications of a significant low‑pressure system affecting the region in the immediate future.”

Explaining the science behind forecasting limits, he said the atmosphere is a “complex dynamic system” in which even small changes in weather factors can lead to substantial differences in outcomes, a phenomenon often referred to as the butterfly effect. 

Weather models, he noted, depend on mathematical simulations fed by data from ground stations, satellites, radar systems and weather balloons, but data coverage is uneven in some areas, posing challenges to accuracy.

Al Jarwan said forecast reliability declines with time, with accuracy falling below 50 per cent beyond ten days, rising to about 75 per cent within five days, and exceeding 90 per cent in the two days immediately preceding a predicted weather event, provided the model data are robust.