US-Iran showdown: Trump keeps world guessing as Mideast remains on edge

Dubai: Will US President Donald Trump order fresh strikes on Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections, or will a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough avert another round of fighting?

The uncertainty is gripping the Middle East as Washington sends conflicting signals about its next move, Tehran warns of a prolonged confrontation and mediators race to prevent a return to full-scale war.

Trump has ruled out attacking Iran before the November 3 elections but has left open what might happen afterward, fuelling speculation about renewed military action.

Iran, meanwhile, has warned that another US-Israeli assault could trigger a wider and more destructive conflict, potentially targeting infrastructure beyond oil facilities.

A senior Iranian security official told CNN that Tehran could strike additional infrastructure, including facilities linked to artificial intelligence, warning that renewed fighting would become a prolonged “war of surprises”.

Yet behind the increasingly sharp rhetoric, diplomatic contacts continue, with Qatar playing a central role in efforts to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations.

Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday as speculation intensified over possible strikes against Iran.

Asked about the conversation on Sunday, the US president offered little detail, saying only that they had held a very good discussion.

Axios reported that Netanyahu was pressing for renewed military action after the US elections, while Trump preferred to give negotiations more time.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump had not decided whether to resume military operations and would prefer a diplomatic settlement.

“There are multiple talks. Talks have actually never stopped,” Rubio told reporters.

He declined to set a deadline for negotiations, saying the decision on military action ultimately rested with the president.

The uncertainty has made it increasingly difficult to determine whether Washington’s military warnings are intended to pressure Tehran into concessions or signal preparations for another confrontation.

Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN that US signals were contributing to anxiety across the region, making it difficult to distinguish negotiating pressure from genuine indications of impending escalation.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the country’s armed forces to prepare for an immediate response to any new attack, without geographical restrictions.

Iranian commanders have also claimed that the country has developed new weapons and expanded its military capabilities since the fighting began in February.

Tehran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei has warned of devastating retaliation if hostilities resume, while Iranian officials have suggested that targets could extend beyond traditional military and energy installations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to negotiations but was equally prepared to defend itself.

He expressed hope that Washington would choose diplomacy, saying the outcome depended on the US response to Iran’s questions and conditions.

Qatar has emerged as a key intermediary, hosting Iranian negotiators and maintaining communication with Washington.

According to AP, Iranian officials said their delegation had left Qatar, although indirect exchanges with Washington were continuing.

Tehran is awaiting a US response to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington accepts several Iranian conditions.

The demands include sanctions relief and changes to restrictions affecting Iranian oil exports. The two sides remain divided over the terms and sequencing of any agreement.

US Vice President JD Vance has also sent a letter to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei, raising hopes that a diplomatic opening may still be possible.

US envoy Tom Barrack offered a more optimistic assessment, telling CNN that significant diplomatic steps could emerge within two weeks.

But Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has insisted that progress depends on Washington accepting Tehran’s seven conditions.

For residents across the Middle East, the uncertainty is no longer confined to diplomatic statements or military movements.

CNN reported that families and businesses are increasingly concerned about possible disruptions to air travel, schools and workplaces if fighting resumes.

In Saudi Arabia, where Houthi attacks have already disrupted daily life, some residents described a return to remote working and online learning.

An American resident told CNN that neighbours and friends were preparing for a difficult November and worrying about holiday flight disruptions.

In Bahrain, residents told CNN that the psychological effects of earlier attacks remained, even as everyday life continued.

The UAE has stressed the importance of diplomacy while acknowledging the possibility of renewed conflict.

Speaking at a conference in Manama on Sunday, presidential diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash said the UAE hoped negotiations would produce a breakthrough.

“It is not the interest of the region to go through another round,” he said, adding that the country was also braced for the worst.

The UAE has repeatedly called for restraint, dialogue and adherence to international law as essential to protecting regional security and stability.

The risks to regional trade and energy supplies were underscored by a fresh incident involving a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier.

According to AP, Qatar’s shipping company Nakilat said its vessel Al Mayeda was struck by unidentified objects in the Arabian Gulf.

The vessel sustained damage but remained operational. No crew members were injured, and no environmental impact was reported.

Qatar condemned the incident and launched an investigation. The company did not identify who was responsible.

Separately, Iran designated Britain’s navy and air force as terrorist organisations, accusing London of supporting US-Israeli military operations.

The developments add to concerns that renewed hostilities could extend beyond direct exchanges between Washington and Tehran.

The central question remains whether the latest diplomatic efforts can bridge the differences between Washington and Tehran before either side decides to escalate.

The United States continues to demand guarantees over Iran’s nuclear programme, while Tehran insists that sanctions relief and its security concerns must be addressed.

With the American elections approaching, military warnings intensifying and mediators still searching for common ground, neither a diplomatic breakthrough nor renewed strikes can be ruled out.

For millions across the region, the immediate concern is whether the coming days will bring an agreement — or another round of disruption.